SAMVAT TRADING

Last Diwali on Samvat trading the markets closed lower, nifty app.100 if i remember..this happened after many years & Many stalwarts wrote that this is not a good sign and the year ahead is going to be very tough. How right were they .... We are reaching another Samvat trading in a weeks time.. ..Is it time to look ahead, i think it is time now for people sitting on cash, to start picking up quality stocks which have weathered this huge deluge of selling well as they will be the ones who will bounce the hardest..Despite huge bearish outlook i feel the time is ripe for at least 50% investment ( this money may be locked for 6-12 months ).Take ur call, if Warren Buffet feels investors should come back, who are we to question that..Asia meanwhile is trading mix..Cheers..

MONTHLY CHARTS FOR GOLD

This is the Monthly gold chart which a friend of mine RAMA from chennai had been asking for..Hope my advise of no buy in gold helped..It corrected over $150. Right now its at 1st support and trending down..the chart is clear in the support/extensions targets, i feel with financial crunch all around, better to wait for some time for stabality to return to world financial markets to plan investment in gold..Hope this helps all friends visiting the blog..cheers

WILL THIS STOP

Volatality has assumed huge dimensions..Cboe Vix over 70 literally( unseen levels by many), the whole world financial order is disarry, best not to discuss any levels..Huge blood on the street, mouthwatering levels of stocks( yet only sellers )total capitulation, huge fear/abject surrender is the hallmark of last few weeks... R we reaching a end..LOOKS LIKE , for the time being..This is what Smart money/Angel investors look for and get in for the long haul again..Watch LEVELS around-- 3280 ---next week.. ..Above that sanity can return..3143 was the STRONG MONTHLY SUPPORT for so long , hope we close over that this month..3050-2995-2950 are good supports..HOPING FOR SANITY TO RETURN SOON,,,,,,,..Trade cautiously..cheers..

BLACK FRIDAY

It looks as if the stock markets performance script is well written for everyweekend , that there will be a good fall on friday so that any and everyone will spend the weekend in misery to find an ans. for this mad mayhem. This is a true picture of the Real bear market which has finally unfurled from 24th september..So today we finally wiped out all recovery again of yesterday and fell to lower depths.. this is whats been happening from the last few days/ weeks..All around all gains of the day were lost in the indexes world over.lets see over the weekend as to what to do now..think best is to not think about the markets and just chill...cheers..

WHAT NEXT

I had written a few days back that we have a target of 3140-50 or lower at 3100, where we may tend to take support, we met that target yesterday and bounced back smartly from there.. Severe capitulation has taken place in small/mid cap shares and many index stalwarts have also not been spared.If this low holds the correction which started from 4649 should come to a end. The next few days will tell, as any upmove does not survive more than 2-3 days. US markets last night gave a BULLISH reversal pattern( recovered all losses and closed in huge positive). Nearer home support of 3240-3225 should hold failing which we may retest the lows..Resistance to the upmove will be 3350-3500 for the time being..Our markets may trade flat to positive before it charts its course.Trade carefully ..cheers

ROLLER COASTER.

Huge global weakness crashed our markets too despite of huge sops from RBI yesterday evening..and then when all looked lost came the great bullish reversal..and what a rally..it was threatening to break 10k sensex ,,,and we travelled back to 3329.....from 3099....3097 is a strong support for this market below which 2995 is what the target could be.Markets have been recovering to deceive again and again with every new bottom, so will have to cross fingers to see how the trade pans out in the next week or so ..3240 is a crucial support level below which 3200 is there, as global cues are guiding us , lets see how Europe/US pans out tonite....take care cheers.

RAMPAGING BEARS AGAIN

The speed lines are quite clear..I connected 4000 - 3198 and see the result, we were to be out of woods over 3648 , alas the bears out again and the bulls just running off.. support was around 3280 level and deeper down at 3050-3000. Is it testing the lows again , or real fears of recession/poor earnings/redemption pressures which is leading to sell offs on a daily basis...I feel in bear markets when nothing helps and there is desperation/despair...we may be near the bottoms..keep cheery picking partially some stocks which you would like to have and carry for 1-2 years..Do keep in mind the rallies in bear markets are fast furious and dont get trapped into buying the highs..trade carefully..cheers..

DOWN & OUT

The 2 days gains just tripped out in a slow grind down in the last 2 days...very typical of bear markets where markets RISE FEROCIOUSLY, and fall VERY SLOWLY.. We are near supports now and if global cues are flat to slight negative , we may expect a recovery here too in a day or so. Lets look into some technicals tonite and will post them tomorrow morning..Hope all who took profits home would be ready to plow their capital again in the market..cheers..

SOFT AGAIN

Profit taking took place yesterday and may continue today too as Asia /US is slightly negative ..best is to wait and watch for a day or so & see what technicals unfold to take a call..trade carefully..cheers.

ARTICLES FOR INVESTTIME

Dear friends, BIRLA SUNLIFE ( wealth managers) Reserch team has asked me to start a series of articles for their inhouse magazine, INVESTTIME on market technicals /indicators/chartpatterns etc etc , for the COMING months... The first in the series is published and available . Do go through the link given below
http://www.birlasunlife.com/distributiontsetIMS/new/Investime_Sept_08.pdf
PAGE 10.
Markets did gap up , gave good profits and the call for booking profits and taking them home must have helped....do remember last weeks mauling by bears was huge and wounds will take some time to heal..lets see how things unfold in the next day or so and where we take support..cheers

AMA/CHANDE VIDYA LINES

the line in green red is AMA/and the line in pink white is chande vidya..see the RSI has a long way to go up to overbought territory right now..notice when they falttened .the prices rallied towards it yesterday...so whe nit will slip price will travel to it..on the rt side is the ama/cv values.. also if u will look a few days back from where the selling is coming when they both turned down...cheers

BULLS BACK

HELLO BULLS, looks like some survived.the severe bear maulings.Weekend gloom doom vanishes with todays opening, most of the fall of last week will be reversed in 2 days..Had written that all this selling is overdone and the bulls will uncoil..as indicators are abt. to turn. Hope the speedlines/retracements levels helped..People who bought stocks last week or went long in FNO should post profits today..enjoy the ride..cheers.

OVERDONE OVERTURNED A BIT

Wow ......relief rally came despite huge glomminess thru the weekend..All and everyone were jumping over one another to give newer lower targets for this monday..well markets are markets, the footprint of the friday trade of higher lows..3198-3209-3258, held as I had written & also the uncoiling of the oversold positions was to take place , we rallied up doing higher highs throughout the day....Good thing is there was no huge selling in the last hour of trade. Technicals do help and its proved again today, only interpretation of signals is required..Hope people have benefitted from the technicals posted here.. So where to from here ..the speed lines will still remain valid..lets see how the drama unfolds in US markets today. Enjoy the good day today...cheers.

CONSOLIDATION WEEK

The speedlines/retracement levels are self explanatory, the damage is very severe and will take its own time to recover. Keep a check on higher lows/highs for direction of the market..All indicators are oversold and can turn anytime, specially this time the faster indicators in daily/weekly/monthly may turn up together which can give a good relief rally, which if held can become a bigger rally..one can pick shares of significance for quick profits in such rally..with sincere wishes for a nice weekly close this week.. ...cheers..

WHATS UP FOR NEXT WEEK

SECULAR damage took place all over the world in stock markets and the financial world. Huge wealth destruction took place in all asset classes except gold. Volatile trading in the US markets and final closing at marginally lower( THANK HEAVENS) eased the fears a bit.Every one is talking abt. decesions to be taken in G7 summit for sanity to return to world financial order.
Back home we did make higher lows but did not make higher highs..we managed to stop at crucial levels on friday..there will be strenght only above the level of 3400 , supports/ resistance at app 3100-3600.. Selling looks very overdone and all indicators can turn anytime..some good stocks which are available today at bargain prices due to capitulation can surely be added for your portfolio for small-midterm ,or a trading bounce in a relief rally. Watch the opening of Asia on monday, I feel next week trading again will be quite volatile till sanity returns..trade with care ..cheers..