TENTATIVE WAVE COUNT

Attached above is a tentative 5 wave count from may 2003 to january 2008 & maybe corrective WAVE A at 2252. The markets can experience a corrective 3 wave upmove to form WAVE B,(B1,B2,B3 are the probable targets ).The corrective 1st wave has started most likely from 2252 and as said before 3050-3150 seems to be the target right now..After completion of the WAVE B, the markets will resume their downwards journey to make the final WAVE C. The normal time taken for the upmove is anything between 6-10 weeks app. (Lets see where the correction of this 1st wave up takes us down to & from wherewe correct , as at this stage generally external help pours in also , which propels markets up along with short squeeze..)

Such panic bottoms are a normally traps for the baby bears (SELL ON RISE TYPE )who keep shorting the rise thinking the down waves will continue , whereas the smart bears have already turned a bit bullish..The technicals for the week and month were discussed below..Hope this helps all who are confused and asking all experts ,as to how to trade in the coming days and weeks..enjoy the ride up ..cheers

BRAVEHEARTS WHO BOUGHT STOCKS CAN KEEP BOOKING.
PS : SGX nifty is up and running..

NOVEMBER MONTH POSSIBLE RANGE.

The range for NF in october was very high, 4061-2228, which basically did unprecedented damage & carnage , not seen in decades in India or anywhere in world markets..Ocober ended with some respite..How will November pan out??????..NOVEMBER ZONE to watchout for i feel is NF 3050, Above that if we get a few closes , the BULLS can take over , below that well , BEARS back again at their job..The range could be large again as of now between 2100-3800. For this WEEK watch 3150 for RESISTANCE & 2670-80 levels for support, below which, support will be at 2500 area ..As selling is overdone, and weak hands are already out or completely desimated, strong hands should lend support at everydip and carry the market further up in the next month or so.At every level participants still stuck in positions will keep getting out or deleveraging their positions, thereby keeping the markets under pressure for some time to come. A good stratergy could be PLAY the SELL CARD when markets make lower highs, and the BUY CARD when markets make higher lows with strict stop losses in place.. Basically meaning become traders for sometime. Wishing all of you a happy November Month,,,,,,cheers.

SHORT COVERING

Starting this SAMVAT , the positive trend is continuing and shorts are getting squeezed this time. Markets were mixed in Asia and despite profit taking, at 2780 -2800 zone short covering came in this area after the markets failed to drop any further and a very quick ride up in last 1/2 hr trade took us again around the top of the day..After a long time one can say, relax and enjoy the weekend...cheers.

PS: history will remember october '08 for times to come and lots of fundamental/technical papers will be written about it in years to come..

PATH AHEAD- resistance clusters

The 3 major downwards moves came from 4649-4303-3649, i have taken the retracement from 2252 for all these 3 levels..The upmove resisitance comes in the shape of clusters here for the move up, CLUSTERS are at app. 2800-3050-3200. October is coming to an end and i dont think we will make any more new lows this month. Bulls have to forget the brutal hammering they got at the hands of the bears last month and keep taking the market slowly away from 2252 to make a semblence of sanity for times ahead. Around 2524 ( monday close ) levels will hold a key area of supports for times to come . Let us see how the footprints are made in the next week or so, to see the trade ahead for the next 2-3 months..Markets i feel will be traders paradise for some time to come..People who had bought the panic dips of friday and monday should book profit and buy again in dips . Trade accordingly , cheers.

V ANAND - INDIAS PRIDE

Standing Ovation and Salute to one Indian who has made us all proud again and again, Viswanathan Anand. You have no parallels . Keep the Indian flag flying high ...Thank you...cheers.

YO YO DAY WITH POSITIVE BIAS

Markets reacted to good positive moves in the US and continued yesterdays positive cues ,but kept getting knocked again and again to profit taking..The YO YO was due to settlement day and GOVT announcements coming tonite..Thank god this series will come to a end , also this BLACK OCTOBER '08. Will be remembered for a long time to come by all participants of the stock markets . Resistance is around 2780-2800 area and support at around 2670 ..break of which will give a quick 150 points move either way..Take care ..cheers..

POSITIVE SAMVAT

Markets world over it seems celebrated the the festival of lights DEEPAVALI, by giving a thumping single day gains.The script got written on friday when our markets trashed and then recovered after faltering once or twice..Nifty moved back from the extension area in the chart i had posted and all the buys of the last two days if visitors to this blog had done are in very good profits including FNO.As we may gap up again today ,resistance may come at 2800 area around..majority profits should be taken off the table for once and the rest traded with strict trailing stoploss. The range to watch is app. 2750-2914-3050 area for this week. Remember had written for weekly range that markets strong over 2800 and will take support around 2350 area. trade well and best wishes for the new SAMVAT..cheers.
PS. A interesting blog you can visit for nifty range is http://www.niftytopsnbottoms.blogspot.com/

HAPPY DIWALI

I would like to wish all friends a very HAPPY DIWALI AND PROSPEROUS SAMVAT2065.
We hope to look forward to better times in the coming months and year.May goddess LAXMI give her blessings to all of us ( sincerely needed by us this time).

ARTICLE IN INVESTTIME OCTOBER ISSUE.

link below for my article in the Birlasunlifes Inhouse magazine INVESTTIMES. (page39)
http://www.birlasunlife.com/distributiontsetIMS/new/Investime_Oct_08.pdf

HELL & BACK

What a day, no one knows now what is happening and why it is happening..only saving grace is that we recovered for the day and did not close again at absymally low levels..This surely will be the blackest diwali in history of indian stock markets as no one remembers anything worser happening level wise/price wise..Lets hope the last samvat ends today and the new samvat brings about some cheer..lets forget markets for somtime and enjoy the festival of lights...wishing all friends a very HAPPY DIWALI..cheers..
PS: WE HAVE COMPLETED 51 DAYS OF FALL TODAY, from 4649.

TRADING TODAY

Markets in Asia are still weak today morning, the pressure is huge and buyers may still be holding back the BUY CALL as to get more juice from these weak markets..do look at the charts posted yesterday and trade accordingly..CHEERS

NIFTY CHARTS- ROAD AHEAD.

The charts above are self explanatory, however CHART1 is the extension/progression chart from 5298-3750-4649 giving the targets till date.. .. The CHART 2 shows that speed lines connection 5298 to 3790 which is showing support around 2450 area , In hindsight it looks as if that When markets could not hold above 3250 and then failed repeatedly to cross 3300, it was as if waiting to test this SPEED LINE AREA..Also please note that the fall from 5298-3790 took 52 days(red line/days) & the fall this time from 4649 to 2525 is already 49 days old..(blue line days), so looking at the markets from any angle in the above two charts gives me a understanding that despite that fact that we are at all time lows.... the supportlines/time cycle/support areas ..& we could be near a end..Do study the charts , make your own anlysis, and take your call..This carnage too will end abruptly as the euphoria ended rudely in january..cheers..

PS. will welcome comments on the charts and analysis i post..

TRUNCATED WEEK AHEAD

Nothing much from the trade from US markets except that it was very volatile and it was not a washout as was in Asia , specially here in India. This OCTOBER MONTH will go down in history as the mother of CAPITULATION, for world financial markets and a huge watershed which decades ahead will be discussed by TAs, for clues and Analysis.
So whats in store next week, most people are seeking views and help of experts as to how to proceed...equity/commodities etc all giving no safe heaven????The fact is no one knows, but someone is buying..People looking ahead and with cash have bought in the last few days,including my wife, and will buy scrips if they dip more for trade and hold....People with Resource capacity & risk appetite only should buy here , otherwise just trade the trends with options ,NF, or one can do daytrades..The fact sadly is that most traders/investors world over play on the long side only as they do stocks ..and are not savvy in futures/options..thus their pain is more high as they dont play the short side of the market.
Coming back home S/R in NIFTY next week will be around 2800, with support at around 2350 & resistance around 3050.It being a Diwali week and also truncated , volumes maybe less..Take your call, will look at some charts tomorrow and try to make some sense out of them for future..cheers..

BLACK FRIDAY

Not much to say except total abject, surrender & capituation..heading towards a frenzied end.. No one thought we will come this far so fast..Support after support went crashing down..As there are only seller and no buyers , something dramatic will have to be done by GOVERMENTS to stem this rot. we are below the june'06, levels today , Prices at much more lower than at those levels ..Bad end to this SAMVAT..This is despodency at its peak..Take care ..cheers

BOTTOMING OUT

Markets will be bottoming out soon as this looks to be the last stages where everyone has just given up on the markets and despodency set in now with absymally low levels are being proposed..The Andrewspitchfork above is showing a tentative target, and this is matches & will join with a very strong multi year support line (2750 ) around which the markets can take support and give the much needed relief rally..Samvat trading is on tuesday and a turn of sentiments may be in offing soon. look at the support lines provided in the chart to plan your moves and calls..take care cheers...