NINE MONTHS GONE BY

Nine months ago we all were on top of this world, sadly, today we are in the pits with many a fortunes wiped out, many participants permanently dissipating in thin air. All efforts are being put today by Governments/authorities/funds/investors etc too , to stem this slide down , and maybe a temporary halt be in order in near future..that does not mean that the bear market has ended & a bull market is starting..Bear markets last anything from 18-34 months before resuming their onward journey up.All bear markets have very fast furious retracements , which should not be confused as bull market returns..these are trading bounces - range bound , and liquidations at top will surely take place,,before it resumes its southward journey for consolidation and spending the time to remove the excesses of the last 5 yrs bull run. So lets see how things unfold in the next few weeks , a rally sometime is due and will happens , from this level or lower, time will tell, but surely the rally will come, thats what stock markets are..
On a personal note, these last nine months have been a great learning journey as i think not only me but many people today would have never seen a bear market unfolding..most entered during the bull phase.Met & made quite a few friends all over this investing world, special mention of the forum called VFM Direct managed by a renowned Technical Analyst of india Kamlesh Langote.(link provided)...mostly simple nice people (well some ....really sad ones)..Special mention i want to do of my dear friend , KIRAN SHAH from PUNE, huge selfless contribultion he gave to all of us by digging into the INTERNET and giving us so many tools.hes our CAMARILLA MAN He shared with all of us anything he could lay his hands on and i could always get back to him for any help i needed in my reserch.Thnx kiran..Rounding off now by paying tributes to Gandhi ji, & with a strong belief of not loosing hope..JAI HIND.

BULLISH DAY

Yesterday call of bullish candle and open to close high gave us the range we looked for in the morning update..app.3850-4000 area. This is becoming a traders market where participants are not very keen as of now to carry forward and add to their longs after buying the panic bottoms..profits are being taken on a intraday or a 2-3 days positional basis...I f we take 3800 as the near term bottom , the tops are squeezing downwards from 4600 in july to about 4000 today.The trading range is getting smaller and smaller.A range ..break out/down is imminent and will be fast furious in a few days from now ....Which side ..Take a guess?????? CHEERS.

NEW BLOG

I am planning to start another blog along with nifty spotter ( caveat remains that i should have spare time from my regular work), where i plan to explain technicals/detailed analysis/give maybe directional calls/ stock pickings/intraday calls /live intraday chat invite other experts etc etc..But this site will be private & accesable through invitaion only. friends visiting here who may be interested and have some suggestions , do send me a mail .thanks in advance....THIS WILL BE A FREE SITE. cheers.

WHATS UP NOW

US markets up, bailout package voting again on wednesday..should go through, being a truncated week, positional players will lighten profit making positions whether short or long & also see from here as markets after the settlement already gave a fast furious one sided move which shook all...Goverments world over were trying to stem the rot by restricting short sellers. 3600 remains a huge dogma for many people as again and again on falls its alluding them. For todays trade 4000 to be watched and 3850 should hold in support. cheers

MONTHLY TECHNICALS

S / R (stop & reverse) for the MONTH OF OCTOBER is 4100 The trading range should be between 3600-4400. We are again and again testing the 3800 levels , failure to hold this level in close can take us to 3650 or 3554 area( low made in july 2007 ). A few closes over 3944 will help stabalise the bulls nerves & with a LITTLE help from global cues can try to move ahead towards 4100..caution is needed around this area as many trapped bulls will be liquidating .. Above 4100-4150 , a bullish move can be expected...happy navratras to all..Jai mata di.

HORSES FOR COURSES

Indian markets today have proved who the HORSES are ..and we lead the recovery in a royal manner.. the Bears had to run to cover their shorts .... My call givenin the morning for bravehearts for buying anything in todays dip , paid good rich dividends (above10-20% in many scrips). NF has moved intraday close to 200 points from days lows . Hope friends visiting the blog would have utilised this call and made profits.in intraday. . there was a huge talk of complete capitulation today, after US bill /markets failure.So what happened ,One everything was quite overdone, Why we recovered in minutes back to 3800 after opening..As mentioned before also 3774 is a huge support and despite the worst news in years in the financial circles/US markets crashing so massively.Smart money it seems still consider 3800 as a strong base to lend buying support..THIRD TIME BOUNCE.. from there ,The level held and within ½ hr we had drifted away from it..heading towards the 800 SMA at 3944 , from where we broke down yesterday when we went lower & capitulation started. Close over 3944 is important for a few days for markets to move ahead..Will we go to retest lows again and go further down to 3600 or lower , yes we can , till we don’t cross over 4050 and close above it for a few days we are not out of the woods. Todays day (open low close high).goes in favour of bulls . PIERCING LINE a Bullish candle was formed Do remember that these are volatile days and profits need to be locked in daily and the next day taken as it comes…lets enjoy todays gains.

.THE BEST TRADES THESE DAYS ARE THE ONES WHERE THE PROFITS HAVE BEEN TAKEN FROM THE TABLE.. cheers.

BAILOUT FIASCO

The unthinkable happened, BAILOUT FAILED, plunging the financial world to pits..we too will follow suit , break lows again(3774 will break) and see where we can find support. such frenzy days always have a flipside. STOCKS AVAILABLE AT REAL GOOD VALUES..Again this is for bravehearts,(specially not for small time guys playing an odd mini nifty here and there) & for people having deeper pockets ,time your purchase ,wait & do play for the bounce , fact is whenever panic sales happen strong hands buy. A solution will also come for this bailout in the next few days and as the markets came down , they will go up also..on a lighter note it seems my weekend musings is really ruffling a few people Lolz,do try to read the complete messages in the blog before commenting..BTW crude is below .. $96 ....take your call

BLOOD BATH

Bulls got butchered all over, anything and everything capitulated, and no place to hide.. break in morning of fridays low started it all and the drift looked like not stopping at all..Nifty still held 3774 , 3rd time, MAKING TRIPLE BOTTOM in the last 3 months..Will it hold ,who knows..shorts were covered in the last 1hrs trade, lets see where this takes the market. Can we buy here well some one did ,to make the markets move up sharply.. Every one is looking at cues from US to see what where we headed..September will be ending at a very weak/capitulated point..lets see how october unfolds..take care ..cheers.

NIFTY CLUSTER

One of the methods technical analysts use is looking at CLUSTERS to find resistances-supports.Looking at the above chart you will find a good cluster being formed in the zone of 3950-4000 and a little deeper at 3900.. There are 7 levels of nifty in this zone..,which have been derived from making extensions/retracements from various levels nifty has travelled in last 2-3 months. Normally at these levels markets try to take support and change course.. As these are exceptional times a break here can take it back to test the lows or lower..Lets wait for a day or so for some confirmation, too much news is there in the pipeline and one can just get whipsawed viciously..trade cautiuosly for the next day or so...cheers

MIND GAMES

We are at it again, whenever the markets are at some peak or bottom , the mind games start, any and everyone worth his/her salt starts projecting the future course.In stock /Financial markets , what is the future..The fact is no one KNOWS ???????? I would like to point here the LEHMAN BROTHERS/BEAR STERNS & MORGANS of this world employed the best TALENT from all over, who were /are better qualified /skilled & still they WENT DOWN. I remember when we were at the top in january all thought that we will cross 6800-7200-and reach the sky, now it is 3200-2600-2100 & hit the earths bed.
A very simple question comes to my mind, WHY ARE THEY STILL IN THE STOCK MARKET today..?????????? ..despite their firm belieft of a crash ahead to very low levels.

1.TIMEPASS IN FORUMS.
2.ITS FREE ENTERTAINEMENT THERE.
3.TAKING CARE OF THEIR LONELINESS.
4.CREATING NOISE AND WASTING EVERYONES TIME.
5.Deluded impression of making many friends/followers AND FEELING GR8.

The fact my friends is that markets are markets and are much more complicated ,maybe manipulated or not , than what appears to a normal eye....and what you see in technical analysis/charts is the past & its footprints & try to make sense out of all that. Do you really need NOISE along with the chaos it creates.(maximum posts in forums these days are posts of depressing times ahead... DEVILS ADVOCATES????)..
SO what can one do,WHYNOT JUST CHILL/ spend time with family/friends/read/see a movie/visit a mall/do some excercise for your health or do anything but spend all your waking hours conferencing/chatting/writing /talking about stock markets.. & then doing next to nothing in trades in the coming week.Lolz..

I feel one should relax and come fresh with new views after the weekend..the world changes on every monday..and week goneby is history,so why waste ur time /energy for that past. let the markets guide you..thats a intelligent way of doing the markets..rather than exhausting yourself or burning out due to others.

enjoy....... cheers..

WHERE ARE WE HEADING

There are 2 possibilities we can look at in this raging debate of where are we headed.

OPTION 1: We take the start of the rally from 920 till 6357. This is the possibility which most of the experts every where have been discussing.The retracements are self explanatory and in RED colour.
OPTION2 :The start of this rally for the time being is taken as 2595 till 6357.The movements of nifty suggest till now that we have been moving in a range which fits these points..This is in BLUE colour.

The possible lows we can hit in the 2 options are 3423-2116..these levels have come out of pure technicals.I have also posted in the blog the speed lines in a monthly chart for tentative movements..kindly take your call from this and trade according to your perception and risk appetite..
As regards next week, 4100 will be the S/R for nifty future,range is wide 3750-4450..take ur call..cheers.

WEEKEND MUSINGS.

Still no package, but US markets did not collapse, surprisingly we did despite no bank failing here.Politics is taking the better of the deal , so be it, why rue on it as it will come , no one in US or anywhere wants a financial collapse. Coming back to our markets, well it seems everyone around is very fearful again and discussing low-lower-lowest and complete collapse in times ahead...so what should Investors who still hold portfolios do, one way is to get out by selling off completely..and go cash....???????or go short,what happens if markets reverse suddenly as can happen in bear markets , look heavenwards for guidence LOLZ.So what should one do practically speaking, remember not all are savvy FNO traders..
1.Knowing that we are at some bottoms( from 6357) right now, use maybe 30-35% capital on shares which you always desired to have but could not due to higher price..
2.Use the other 30-35% of the capital for that severe capitulation down day when prices go to crazy lows.
3.always keep some 25-30% for that fateful low after all systems collapse.(as projected by experts)
4. Dont overtrade, use your own funds..
5. ALWAYS REMAIN POSITIVE.That will keep you healthy too.

REMEMBER WARRENS/ GATES OF THE WORLD NEVER BECAME RICH BY BEING NEGATIVE.THEY THRIVED ON SOMETHING CALLED HOPE.
have a nice weekend..cheers

DOWN WAS THE DIRECTION

Our markets started slipping right from the start of trade as Asian cues were also weak..as it tried to take support again and again but kept slipping on fear of more problems and delay of the relief package..Markets have closed below crucial level of 4016 for the week and at the levels of 3990 which is app.61.8% of the total rise. But what was amazing in the second part of day was sudden capitulaton of the prices of any and every stock as if some bulk unloading is taking place or participants were not ready to carry forward the inventories over the weekend..So the direction is given???? what next..,markets are over sold at close in intraday and will wait for clues tonite or over the weekend for the package to be announced.Lets muse over the weekend..take care cheers.

STILL WAITING

No decision yet from the US regards the bailout & future course for the financial world, but the Troubled WASHINGTON MUTUAL, the largest saving bank goes under(my very close friends son works there) which may be leading to Asia cues been weak today. Our markets will also do nothing, the premium in october series is not good as there are no shorts to cushion the falls, so maybe a drift downwards due to weekend factor..range could be 4070-50 down and 4170-80 higher. Will try to find from charts during the weekend what could be in store for us during the next month..cheers.

TRADERS DELIGHT

Markets are just spending time in a zone now of 4000-4200. Is it consolidating, could be, 0r waiting for some cues to take the plunge, which way, we will know in a day or so. best advise here for small traders is to stay away as undecided markets are normally the traps where many a investor get trapped..
A wise international investor once wrote that when hes really very itchy to take a specific directional trade , he normally pends his decision by 3 hrs/3 days/3 weeks and has found that the situation is quite different from what he had conjured in his mind..try it sometime,it may just surprise you into thinking afresh your trading stratergy.

Market settlement today is below last months settlement of 4214, which is not a good sign.Will wait & watch for cues to trade the direction from hereon..Massive positive news is required for move upwards otherwise we may end up in a range bound trade for some time.with downward bias....cheers.