MONTHLY SUPPORTS RESISTANCES.

The Monthly Nifty Charts show the downward sloping channel..the touch down was app.3290-3300 , markets moved fast furiuos yesterday towards it , but stopped short at 3329.45..,turned and covered ground fast despite continuos selling & kept recovering till the close.The speed lines show the 3rd final supports around 3100 area..(i have 3140-3150 as a value of nifty for final support )below which could be a free fall..last we tested this support line was MAY'04...If this bottom holds , we can expect a bounce to 4100 area as per speed lines and any turn of trend can take us to top of the channel which today is .. 4300 area ..

The Monthly Stochastics & RSI are fast nearing the oversold territory( from January'08 tops) but still pointing downwards due to relentless selling of last 1 week. As and when they turn , the market can look upwards..for a while , will the relief rally come , surely why not as everything is grossly overdone..MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN..??????The best thing we can do here is start to look for signs like, higher bottoms /higher tops...& see that the bottoms made are not breached .Do keep in mind that the last one weeks fall put in a huge STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO ALL STOCK/FINANCIAL MARKETS OF THE WORLD. And recovery will be a bit slow and over time..Hope this helps all friends visiting here.. cheers..

PS: Monthly charts are used for finding future footprints from the past for longterm.

HAPPY DUSSEHRA DAY

I would like to wish all friends visiting my blog on this auspicious day, with a sincere hope that the coming days /weeks brings a end to this senseless selling/carnage and world financial order stabalises too. I would like to thank all the visitors to the blog , specially the people who have been sending me mails/yahoo msgs , for their encouragement and kind words. Since I started this blog, I have been trying to build this place as a learning site for newbies and oldbies for technicals , using my knowledge and expertise of reading and interpreting charts.Please appreciate that my complete time is paid by my clients & my expertise / trading skills is primarily for them so technicals is what you get here , will try to do more for intraday also if time permits..I feel it is better for people to learn technicals themselves and trade according to their risk appetite..not long back a group of people got together to learn technicals from me..almost all take their own calls except one or two who still chase experts all the time ..and wait for calls..WHAT A WASTE..do keep sending me ur suggestions for what more in techs . can be done.& .Enjoy the day...cheers.

DOWN BUT NOT OUT TODAY

Horrendous start to the day..gap down and falling all supports broke..finally reached a support where buying emerged & what a run , despite repeated selling again & again the markets kept trying to recover losses..ending in a HAMMER CANDLE IN DAILY CHARTS.( long tail at bottom, shorts covered)...hope my call before the 11.30 am close helped and all those friends who visited the blog could buy calls and stocks....lets breathe a bit easiar with todays closing and reflect over the holiday as to what next..as the sunoutage days has really drained every bit of energy from all.. relax & enjoy the festivities my friends..cheers...

COMPLETE BREAK DOWN

Markets just melted away..the carnage continues..best is to sit back and let it unfold its frenzy. we are near supports so shorts can be covered and wait for longs to be initiated..some out of money calls say 3900-4000 type can be initiated later today ,stocks are at good valuations and some long positions can be initiated here for short to mid term for the pull backs (use own funds only which you can hold)....keep away from futures etc...cheers..

CARNAGE AGAIN

No respite for the global markets..Watch the ANDREWS PITCHFORK/SPEED LINES INTRA CHART i had posted before for supports.. today also is the last day of truncated sunoutage trading..this whole period has been real bad ,a specially the last few days...Evaluations are coming to attractive levels , this trend has to snap/stop , SMART MONEY waiting for long should be ready to jump in anytime , maybe waiting for cues /dollops from the goverments all over the world. Wait for stablity to come for taking any calls.Tomorrow being a holiday keep light trades or just stay away..cheers.

ps. will try to post after 11.30 am with some chart for todays trade..

VOLATILITY GALORE

The day will be written as a huge volatile day where both bulls/bears struggled for supremacy..indexes & prices were dancing thru out the day..every rise was sold into,and prices capitulated like nothing before..in the last trading secession,finally the markets starting absorbing the feeds and moving up. though the markets closed much higher , however the adjustments brought it down in closing ..... seems the bears may have withdrawn temporarily,after booking their huge profits..The trading footprint is in the charts that i posted mid day, hope it had helped....trade accordingly..cheers.

MIDDAY POSTING

The two intraday charts above of speed line/pitchfork till 11.30 am.. they are from the start of this downwave ie 4304..& are self explanatory..we are at supports here..if these do not hold then the next supports are deeper down..take ur trading calls as per ur risk appetite..cheers.

CAPITULATION

Looks like monday was a day of capitulation fever which moved from Asia to Europe and then final frenzy in US. Good news is that a sharp bounce occured by end of trade there in US...The Asian markets are a bit stable today and with our GOVT. also announcing some sops last evening , we too hope to stabalise. The chart posted last evening should be used for reference for trading levels in the next few days. Remember everything overdone comes to a end. Keep your trades very light as we have a holiday on thursday for Dussehra and the truncated trading ends on 8thoct.3800-4000 area will be a area to watch and break again below 3600 can take us to 3500. take care..cheers.

BLOOD BATH AGAIN

Blood bath again today, every market in the world capitulised on financial fears..where is the base..we should be touching base at least for the time being some where around these levels in zone of 3650-3600-3550-3500..( have posted charts also for this few days back)many scrips are available at mouth watering prices and people in cash would have definitely bought for a trading bounce.. Some world order will be surely there and the retracements also will be fast & furious as is typical of the Bear markets. The above chart shows the channel we are following , support at app.3550 and the resistance on reversal at 3800-4050. Hope this helps..( do not sell off in panic)Trade accordingly...cheers

SUPPORT AROUND 3650

Nifty moved from 920, may 03 to 6357, jan'08..50 % retracement is 3644 area..markets came and stopped here..Despite holding out 3774 for 3 months , this level finally held. today was a capitulation day when specially the index shares tumbled and margin calls also played out. Hold on to your guns ..dont panic..and sell your stocks..stay in the sideslines..A bounce will come..these are great price levels and brave hearts can do some blue chip share picking..cheers.

WEAKNESS GALORE

Asia is soft after the US melt down, financial problems galore and it seems more agony in store. Only above 3774 will there be some semblence.Market will be weak below 3730. The first 1st hr of trade and closing will be important . The Andrew Pitchfork tells all for this range of of the nifty, as the sentiment is bad, best stratergy for a day or two will be to stay out and let market decide . Marekts will be oversoold with todays opening but can remain oversold to for more time so..WAIT FOR DUST TO SETTLE. ..cheers.

MACD DIVERGENCES & COMPRESSIONS

The chart 1 is a daily chart and looking at the MACD , one can see that during the falls in january the MACD went to -220 NS @ 4448 , in july -204 NS at 3790, and now at -114 NS at app.3800 level . The MACD is improving gaining strenght with the passage of time despite NS going lower, that shows a POSITIVE DIVERGENCE..as of today..also pls. note that the red line in macd( above zero line) is a strong resistance point from where it keeps falling.. this is showing signs of bottoming out some time in the near future.

The chart 2 is the weekly charts which show the green line at a area which can be a tentative support in coming days if we trail downwards..its around 3600 area and is march '07 lows..(Sensex which made a low 12312 in march' 07 has already gone lower at 12153 now)Also note that this MACD also is loosing the momentun, the 2 first falls from 6357 & 5500 is strong where as now its showing compression of trend.

So can we fall more , sure we can, but will this have huge momentum, cant say as MACD is showing divergence and compression..so maybe cross your fingers we may be near to an end of this trend soon. The short/long lines as yet are pointing down and these points could be the reversal targets if & when we turn to start with..So dont be depressed with all the bad news around. MARKETS HAVE TO MAKE ITS WAVES..UP-DOWN-UP.Wait for the MACD to cross over for upwards move..then enter for a nice haul up.

MACD is a powerful tool used by many experts to see the trends as they start giving signals much in advance of the coming moves of the markets..hope this helps all...cheers..

WHATS IN STORE NEXT WEEK

US MARKETS instead of cheering the bailout package ,charted its own course last night which was down. The gloom and doom advocates were out with their knifes surprising most of the experts in WALL/MAIN STREET. Nearer home target of around 3650 or below , may finally be come true next week after ALMOST 3 MONTHS HOLDING . 3880 area will be the S/R for NF next week..with range of 3650-4100 . Its going to be a tough volatile , so trade carefully so as to not be whipsawed. Will post some charts later today for all to see and analyse.. cheers.

SLIPPING AGAIN

Markets slipped right from the word go..and went down as per our speed lines ..3900-3800..till the end when some short covering from intraday traders took it up a bit..today the index shares slipped too ..led by who but RIL..seems to be overdone..So whats in store for next week..will look into this over the weekend..The only fact is that all & sundry are getting sick in their pits now by this daily bashing which seems to be coming to a frenzy as the CBOE vix of US too is dangling at the top..many chatting or calling up just want to shut down their terminals for a few days / weeks and stay away..Hey this could be the first signs of a temp. end to this misery may be in sight soon..enjoy ur weekend..cheers.

SAFETY FIRST

Looks like the US markets dont want to take chances and are pressurising the law makers by dipping last evening , into passing the bailout package ASAP, so that Americans and the world goes about doing there business..The consenses remains that no one wants financial mayhem in this world..

Coming to our markets..the speed lines in the intraday 60 mins charts suggest a trading range for us..around 3800-3900-4050 app... the Fast DTI is reflecting the last 2 days upwards momentum but near zero cross over, which can reverse in opening only..

I would like to pointout here that one of the good tool to evaluate market /momentum/direction is MACD. Unfortunately in daily scale its still negative..long positions should be taken only when this starts displaying upwards momentum or positive divergence in DAILYCHARTS..I will post some charts for all to see and take/plan their investment/trading stratergy.... happy trading ..cheers.