MONTHLY TECHNICALS

S / R (stop & reverse) for the MONTH OF OCTOBER is 4100 The trading range should be between 3600-4400. We are again and again testing the 3800 levels , failure to hold this level in close can take us to 3650 or 3554 area( low made in july 2007 ). A few closes over 3944 will help stabalise the bulls nerves & with a LITTLE help from global cues can try to move ahead towards 4100..caution is needed around this area as many trapped bulls will be liquidating .. Above 4100-4150 , a bullish move can be expected...happy navratras to all..Jai mata di.

HORSES FOR COURSES

Indian markets today have proved who the HORSES are ..and we lead the recovery in a royal manner.. the Bears had to run to cover their shorts .... My call givenin the morning for bravehearts for buying anything in todays dip , paid good rich dividends (above10-20% in many scrips). NF has moved intraday close to 200 points from days lows . Hope friends visiting the blog would have utilised this call and made profits.in intraday. . there was a huge talk of complete capitulation today, after US bill /markets failure.So what happened ,One everything was quite overdone, Why we recovered in minutes back to 3800 after opening..As mentioned before also 3774 is a huge support and despite the worst news in years in the financial circles/US markets crashing so massively.Smart money it seems still consider 3800 as a strong base to lend buying support..THIRD TIME BOUNCE.. from there ,The level held and within ½ hr we had drifted away from it..heading towards the 800 SMA at 3944 , from where we broke down yesterday when we went lower & capitulation started. Close over 3944 is important for a few days for markets to move ahead..Will we go to retest lows again and go further down to 3600 or lower , yes we can , till we don’t cross over 4050 and close above it for a few days we are not out of the woods. Todays day (open low close high).goes in favour of bulls . PIERCING LINE a Bullish candle was formed Do remember that these are volatile days and profits need to be locked in daily and the next day taken as it comes…lets enjoy todays gains.

.THE BEST TRADES THESE DAYS ARE THE ONES WHERE THE PROFITS HAVE BEEN TAKEN FROM THE TABLE.. cheers.

BAILOUT FIASCO

The unthinkable happened, BAILOUT FAILED, plunging the financial world to pits..we too will follow suit , break lows again(3774 will break) and see where we can find support. such frenzy days always have a flipside. STOCKS AVAILABLE AT REAL GOOD VALUES..Again this is for bravehearts,(specially not for small time guys playing an odd mini nifty here and there) & for people having deeper pockets ,time your purchase ,wait & do play for the bounce , fact is whenever panic sales happen strong hands buy. A solution will also come for this bailout in the next few days and as the markets came down , they will go up also..on a lighter note it seems my weekend musings is really ruffling a few people Lolz,do try to read the complete messages in the blog before commenting..BTW crude is below .. $96 ....take your call

BLOOD BATH

Bulls got butchered all over, anything and everything capitulated, and no place to hide.. break in morning of fridays low started it all and the drift looked like not stopping at all..Nifty still held 3774 , 3rd time, MAKING TRIPLE BOTTOM in the last 3 months..Will it hold ,who knows..shorts were covered in the last 1hrs trade, lets see where this takes the market. Can we buy here well some one did ,to make the markets move up sharply.. Every one is looking at cues from US to see what where we headed..September will be ending at a very weak/capitulated point..lets see how october unfolds..take care ..cheers.

NIFTY CLUSTER

One of the methods technical analysts use is looking at CLUSTERS to find resistances-supports.Looking at the above chart you will find a good cluster being formed in the zone of 3950-4000 and a little deeper at 3900.. There are 7 levels of nifty in this zone..,which have been derived from making extensions/retracements from various levels nifty has travelled in last 2-3 months. Normally at these levels markets try to take support and change course.. As these are exceptional times a break here can take it back to test the lows or lower..Lets wait for a day or so for some confirmation, too much news is there in the pipeline and one can just get whipsawed viciously..trade cautiuosly for the next day or so...cheers

MIND GAMES

We are at it again, whenever the markets are at some peak or bottom , the mind games start, any and everyone worth his/her salt starts projecting the future course.In stock /Financial markets , what is the future..The fact is no one KNOWS ???????? I would like to point here the LEHMAN BROTHERS/BEAR STERNS & MORGANS of this world employed the best TALENT from all over, who were /are better qualified /skilled & still they WENT DOWN. I remember when we were at the top in january all thought that we will cross 6800-7200-and reach the sky, now it is 3200-2600-2100 & hit the earths bed.
A very simple question comes to my mind, WHY ARE THEY STILL IN THE STOCK MARKET today..?????????? ..despite their firm belieft of a crash ahead to very low levels.

1.TIMEPASS IN FORUMS.
2.ITS FREE ENTERTAINEMENT THERE.
3.TAKING CARE OF THEIR LONELINESS.
4.CREATING NOISE AND WASTING EVERYONES TIME.
5.Deluded impression of making many friends/followers AND FEELING GR8.

The fact my friends is that markets are markets and are much more complicated ,maybe manipulated or not , than what appears to a normal eye....and what you see in technical analysis/charts is the past & its footprints & try to make sense out of all that. Do you really need NOISE along with the chaos it creates.(maximum posts in forums these days are posts of depressing times ahead... DEVILS ADVOCATES????)..
SO what can one do,WHYNOT JUST CHILL/ spend time with family/friends/read/see a movie/visit a mall/do some excercise for your health or do anything but spend all your waking hours conferencing/chatting/writing /talking about stock markets.. & then doing next to nothing in trades in the coming week.Lolz..

I feel one should relax and come fresh with new views after the weekend..the world changes on every monday..and week goneby is history,so why waste ur time /energy for that past. let the markets guide you..thats a intelligent way of doing the markets..rather than exhausting yourself or burning out due to others.

enjoy....... cheers..

WHERE ARE WE HEADING

There are 2 possibilities we can look at in this raging debate of where are we headed.

OPTION 1: We take the start of the rally from 920 till 6357. This is the possibility which most of the experts every where have been discussing.The retracements are self explanatory and in RED colour.
OPTION2 :The start of this rally for the time being is taken as 2595 till 6357.The movements of nifty suggest till now that we have been moving in a range which fits these points..This is in BLUE colour.

The possible lows we can hit in the 2 options are 3423-2116..these levels have come out of pure technicals.I have also posted in the blog the speed lines in a monthly chart for tentative movements..kindly take your call from this and trade according to your perception and risk appetite..
As regards next week, 4100 will be the S/R for nifty future,range is wide 3750-4450..take ur call..cheers.

WEEKEND MUSINGS.

Still no package, but US markets did not collapse, surprisingly we did despite no bank failing here.Politics is taking the better of the deal , so be it, why rue on it as it will come , no one in US or anywhere wants a financial collapse. Coming back to our markets, well it seems everyone around is very fearful again and discussing low-lower-lowest and complete collapse in times ahead...so what should Investors who still hold portfolios do, one way is to get out by selling off completely..and go cash....???????or go short,what happens if markets reverse suddenly as can happen in bear markets , look heavenwards for guidence LOLZ.So what should one do practically speaking, remember not all are savvy FNO traders..
1.Knowing that we are at some bottoms( from 6357) right now, use maybe 30-35% capital on shares which you always desired to have but could not due to higher price..
2.Use the other 30-35% of the capital for that severe capitulation down day when prices go to crazy lows.
3.always keep some 25-30% for that fateful low after all systems collapse.(as projected by experts)
4. Dont overtrade, use your own funds..
5. ALWAYS REMAIN POSITIVE.That will keep you healthy too.

REMEMBER WARRENS/ GATES OF THE WORLD NEVER BECAME RICH BY BEING NEGATIVE.THEY THRIVED ON SOMETHING CALLED HOPE.
have a nice weekend..cheers

DOWN WAS THE DIRECTION

Our markets started slipping right from the start of trade as Asian cues were also weak..as it tried to take support again and again but kept slipping on fear of more problems and delay of the relief package..Markets have closed below crucial level of 4016 for the week and at the levels of 3990 which is app.61.8% of the total rise. But what was amazing in the second part of day was sudden capitulaton of the prices of any and every stock as if some bulk unloading is taking place or participants were not ready to carry forward the inventories over the weekend..So the direction is given???? what next..,markets are over sold at close in intraday and will wait for clues tonite or over the weekend for the package to be announced.Lets muse over the weekend..take care cheers.

STILL WAITING

No decision yet from the US regards the bailout & future course for the financial world, but the Troubled WASHINGTON MUTUAL, the largest saving bank goes under(my very close friends son works there) which may be leading to Asia cues been weak today. Our markets will also do nothing, the premium in october series is not good as there are no shorts to cushion the falls, so maybe a drift downwards due to weekend factor..range could be 4070-50 down and 4170-80 higher. Will try to find from charts during the weekend what could be in store for us during the next month..cheers.

TRADERS DELIGHT

Markets are just spending time in a zone now of 4000-4200. Is it consolidating, could be, 0r waiting for some cues to take the plunge, which way, we will know in a day or so. best advise here for small traders is to stay away as undecided markets are normally the traps where many a investor get trapped..
A wise international investor once wrote that when hes really very itchy to take a specific directional trade , he normally pends his decision by 3 hrs/3 days/3 weeks and has found that the situation is quite different from what he had conjured in his mind..try it sometime,it may just surprise you into thinking afresh your trading stratergy.

Market settlement today is below last months settlement of 4214, which is not a good sign.Will wait & watch for cues to trade the direction from hereon..Massive positive news is required for move upwards otherwise we may end up in a range bound trade for some time.with downward bias....cheers.

STILL NO CUES

Markets world over still doing nothing. Very flat, range bound , seems looking to US for sense of direction..Are we showing weakness for a crash..Dont think so right now , as we would have drifted much lower yesterday in that case...Today being the settlement day some volatality is expected..Watch 4116 below and 4208 above . this could be the temporary range..Break either way will give direction..WATCH 4214 TODAY , it will be a important level for next months trade.

SIDEWAYS DAY

It was a classic traders market in a sideways day, where both the longs /shorts made money, so the flexible people could swing both ways with their charts and trade. The support /resistances still remain same. just for newbies and those who do not understand techs..markets today took support at 4115.8 which was 38% app. of the total rise..generally they can go down to 50 or 61.8% of the rise. For a bullish signal this level (3990) has to be held, Then the markets can resume its upmove again. the next 2-3 days are crucial for the news/settlement and major decisions to come..i will prefer a neutral stance with a trading bias . the cash levels taken at top can be maintained still so as to invest when ever the oppurtunity arrives. lets see how events unfold tonite in the US courtesy Mr Bernanke/Paulson the new messiahs for stock markets world over...cheers

LOOKING FOR CUES

US markets were in a ding dong mode going positive-negative alternatively, finally ending in the negative.The whole world was watching the biggest write down in history being debated at the US congress, lets see what happens to the proposals in the days to come.Asia is just about flat, Sun Outage also starts today till 8-10-08, thereby leaving us with truncated longer hrs in trading. All supports -resistances are same as given below in the last 2 days and now being last days of settlement, we can expect some swings too.. US senate has approved our Nuclear deal by 19-2 vote..lets see whether this can be approved by the congress soon despite being so busy with financial crisis debate right now. Trade carefully..cheers.

TRAVELLING DOWN

Despite weak opening , and subsequent recovery, markets showed weakness throughout the day, thus inviting long liquidation & shorting .we are at support of 4130 and the major indicators are in the zone of 50% level looking downwards..any further weakness from here can take us doen to 4050-4000 levels quickly. Trade cautiously as below 4050 will start the BEARS TERRITORY.All those who took my call of booking profits would appreciate the levels of prices today at close. we always can buy at supports again , take ur as per ur risk appetite...cheers.

SOFT MARKETS.

After a strong move of last week, markets witnessed routine profit booking yesterday..With crude/gold running up, US markets also went soft & started the correction of the stupendous ride up..Asia may follow also for a few days..NO BOTTOM FISHING TODAY. supports lie at 4170 and below at 4130. If weakness persists we may go to 4070 and 4020 zone. Do remember that markets can do upto 61.8 % retracement of the total upmove which is around 3990 area. happy trading ..cheers.

PROFIT TAKING

With market opening at 4303(below our september magic no. of 4304 remember), routine profit taking took place through out the day. Every dip was being bought as it seems many were short and are still trapped making 4200 a good support point for the day.some of the midcaps specially moser bayer really were flying all around and index majors just giving up gains slowly. hope all locked in their profits, as markets looked a bit overbought from morning..whats in store for the next few days, lets see tomorrow..enjoy the evening ..cheers.

ROAD AHEAD

The chart above is self explanatory. the Extension Targets shows resistance around 4330 and then 4450 & around zone..support at 4130. The DIRECTIONAL TREND INDEX is still negative despite the huge rise as this is a slower indicator and turns over a period of time. As Asian cues are flat, profit taking may be the call of the day , despite the fact that FII not only covered their shorts but went long too on friday. wait for a dip and see where we head in next 2-3 days, Bravehearts should surely take profit for their entry below. ..happy trading cheers.

WEEKEND MUSINGS..

Markets went thru a huge turmoil over the last week , from extreme pessimisiom to relief and optimism now...Many stalwarts /so called experts were bullish then bearish and have been propogating doomsday in times ahead specially last week causing much palpitation & pain to investors and semingly not allowing many to invest at such low levels and good prices, for a quick trading gains. if DII /FII can do it , why not a small investor- trader like us ,who has been living each day with fear..Mature musings are expected from all who take it on themselves to help fellow investors by their expertise and writings..AND THINGS LIKE SHORTING THE HUGE RISE, INCREDIBLE CALLS..where did they learn their technicals...these guys buying falls and shorting rises need to go back to the learning schools..IF NOTHING ELSE THEN JUST WAIT FOR THE TREND TO FINISH TO SHORT.. I Will request all my readers /visitors to be selective of what they read and absorb ,ALL THIS IS NOISE..Coming to the markets it seem to have made a DOUBLE BOTTOM ..at around 3800 levels..if this hold over the next few weeks we should head for 4649-5298 , they seem to be the swing targets from the monthly charts .. Strong support will be at 4170-4130 or maybe 4020-50 zone...BUY IN DIPS HAS BEEN WORKING IN THIS CRAZY MARKET for quite a while , SO ALWAYS KEEP SOME CAPITAL READY FOR BUYING IN THOSE crazy panic DAYS..ENJOY THE WEEKEND ..cheers
ps. next week sometime will look into the moving averages in daily charts for the market movement or targets.

NEXT WEEK TRADES... 22nd SEPT.

The week gone by closed higher than open theirby giving a bullish bias for next week. As markets have given a huge move from 3800, profit taking will come if we gap up again on monday..keep taking profits to remain healthy in this market, and buy on dips now. 4125-4150 range should be watched, any break of this will take markets down to retest the 4070-4020 to 3990-3960 zone again. The resistance will again be 4308-4328-4368-4398-4420.Trade carefully keeping in mind that this is the settlement week which can be as volatile as you can ask for..CHEERS

WHAT A RALLY ALL OVER

SHORTS had no place to hide in the globe..all the so called dooms day prophets just went on vacation today. The global bid to stem the rot/ Fed/EU/Japanese injection of billions of dollars, Ban on short selling specially of financial shares in England etc sent a strong message of the intension..DOW futures are positive again and will rock tonite..all losses of the week are recovered..in India our weekly close was higher than the open, giving a marginally bullish signal for a few days more.All brave hearts would have gained handsomely..though i was surprised some experts giving bearish /short calls or telling all not to buy anything as deeper is there, and instead of 35-3600 we are at app.4308, my target..where do we go next week, lets enjoy the profits and see about it during the weekend..cheers..

WHAT A RALLY ALL OVER

SHORTS had no place to hide in the globe..all the so called dooms day prophets just went on vacation today. The global bid to stem the rot/ Fed/EU/Japanese injection of billions of dollars, Ban on short selling specially of financial shares in England etc sent a strong message of the intension..DOW futures are positive again and will rock tonite..all losses of the week are recovered..in India our weekly close was higer than the open, giving a marginally bullish signal for a few days more.All brave hearts would have gained handsomely..though i was surprised some experts giving bearish /short calls or telling all not to buy anything as deeper is there, and instead of 35-3600 we are at app.4308, my target..where do we go next week, lets enjoy the profits and see about it during the weekend..cheers..

GALLOPING UP TODAY

Down yesterday, huge cover up to end positive, gap up today as US/Asia rocking..the roller coaster continues..we held 3790-3920-closed over 4016..Swing target is 4308 over 4116,As SGX is trading abover 42oo , we should move towards 4308 & higher as intra charts have turned so have daily...with supports at 4200-4070....BRAVEHEARTS , remember my call , ENJOY YOUR PROFITS TODAY. THE 8th day turning also worked..happy trading as there will be smiles all over after many days..happy trading & cheers

WHAT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE

Amazing but true, twice in this week the markets covered their huge falls in a surgical/swift manner.taking support at 3799( above last low of 3790), i had written in july in VFM Direct, It will be very difficult to break MAY'07 TOP OF 3774..still holding my friends despite huge bearish calls then and now too..crossed 3850 headed staright for 3920 & above it just went beserk to end the day at the top at 4043..(hope the chart posted in morning helped.)..Does this mean we are out of the woods..DEFINITELY NO, theres still lots of problems in the finacial world and lots of bear market, time wise....we ran up as it looked a bit too overdone and goverments world over also tried to intervene to stop this one way spiral. SOMEONE IS BUYING last 4 days in every fall, they should be institutional /big buyers/smart money who were in cash..MY CALL OF BRAVEHEARTS TO BUY would have paid very rich divedends. today and later too.thats markets my friends...enjoy the ride but be sensible and brave..WHAT NEXT..????will ponder tonite..do check tomorrow morning..cheers.

TSUNAMI AGAIN IN WALL STREET

Huge selling in US has followed up with Asian markets crashing too, supports will vanish again today. The above chart gives us a app. targets below where the markets should take support. 3850 zone ,3790( old low) and below 3680 then holds the key to this unprecedented deluge caused due to total collapse of US financial giants.. The DTI is still pointing strong sell lets see where it takes us..2 gone, 1 bailed out , 2 struggling, what more can be bad...all bad news has come in droves..CRUDE /GOLD moving up..A very heady cocktail for disaster.For brave hearts again, buying a little in extreme panics has always given dividends, as this is a real one way road so far..SELL/SELL/SELL, but trade with your risk appetite only as conditions are really bleak.REMEMBER TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH DAY OF CONTINUOUS FALL.cheers and best of luck .

WHATS HAPPENING

Markets not giving any help to traders , it was a real thriller of a markets with wild swings both ways..it seems SL could have been hit both ways if trader was not savvy..after opening positive markets today closed much lower than the open thereby indicating further weakness still...4016 was crucial support , we have closed below this.. supports still are in the region of 3970-90 and deeper at 3920-3845. Anyone who is scared of volatality should stay on the side lines for a few days so as to let the market decide its course & directions as everyday the debate world over is..... who else next day..Remember the best long term investments are made during panic dips...Trade well..will try to do some charts and some targets .for all of you...cheers

REACTIONS RUNNING THE MARKETS.

Nifty took support at 3920 , turned and recovered complete days loss to close in positive. As suggested yesteday that open to close was higher, we will open positive today and then chart the path for the coming days. There were many bearish calls during the weekend , wild levels being discussed, many may now be trapped in the shorts they created in last 2 days..the short covering too will take the markets further up. level to watch will be 4070 in support and further down 4016 , with resistance in range of 4160-70 (NF WATCH 4167) & further up in 4200-4220 zone. The bias is up for the day so trade accordingly..cheers

INDIAN DELIGHT

Despite all weak cues from world financial markets, the indian surprise in adverse situation again came along to maybe surprise many ( specially short guys) . Market took support at 3920 which i had been saying as WATCHOUT ZONE and turned from there after consolidating for some time..short covering was visible as index stocks lead by RIL /SBI/ABAN etc started rallying..even the mid/small started dancing in the last hr..NTPC/SAIL /BOI/BOB etc gave the usual support..intraday charts are showing a turn and markets made a top which is tad lower than yesterdays high..seeing the open to close which is higher today ,we can expect bullish opening, & FEDS announcements WILL BE EAGERLY AWAITED by ALL..Always remember deep lows are made when some big mishaps happen.thats when you get great values in stocks too......any one listening?????i have not written no bottom fishing last 2 days and its traders paradise again today..BRAVEHEARTS THOU SHALL WIN ALWAYS...cheers.

HURRICANE IKE IN WALL STREET.

The hurricane changed course, paid a visit to the Wall street after going through Asia and Europe , left enough destruction & skeletons ( very old huge institutions going under) for experts to write/study about for times eternity. My heart goes out for all the employees of these 2 institutions, who will have to start their lives afresh from today. News of AIG , and many smaller banks going under will add huge woes to the already stretched system..WELL THIS IS WHAT BEAR MARKETS ARE ABOUT..removing the acceses of the bull run.
Is there more to come. Yes surely why not , Time wise we are just eight months into this bear run which can last 18-24 months or more maybe..Will we have a RELIEF RALLY, surely whynot ,maybe soon when dust settles..lets look at supports again..SGX IS AROUND 3900..as written below ..3920 then 3845 & 3790 our last low..should lend support , FED also tonite may have some package (as usual in crisis ) for the financial markets which may give some positive boost to the sentiments..remember ..ALL BAD NEWS IS COMING IN HORDES ....there is always light at the end of the tunnel..BTW CRUDE IS AT RECORD LOW BELOW $92..any takers in stockmarkets (last time when we were at these levels ,crude was on fire and much much higher)....wrong time to ask this question....take your call as per your risk appetite..cheers.

BULLS/CALFs ALL BLOODIED

No place to hide today , nifty plunged breaking all supports of 4160-4070 in opening and then did take support at the 3970-90 zone as mentioned by me in the morning..and made a smart recovery thereon when everything looked so gloomy ( even rumours of 10% lower circuit) LOLz..looked like big short covering there in a hurry as they were in huge profits and such a deep fall came after ages.. REMEMBER , had warned the Bears are just lurking around and will pounce hard on any weakness. All friends who took my advise of NO BOTTOM FISHING would have fished well today for very quick gains and some delivery deals..Lehman provided the clue and the party started.We have 3920 zone as a very strong support area, deeper down it is 3845 , which should give respite to the bulls. lets see how tonite unfolds in the US , what with Lehman and markets in a spiral down..its going to be interesting to see what action fed. takes.. THE MARKET TODAY REWARDED BOTH THE BRAVE BEARS/ BULLS. The good news today was CRUDE went BELOW $97.. lets relax and enjoy the profits today, guys the day was a traders dream...CHEERS.

NIGHTMARE DURING DAY

Financials Financials & Financials are driving this market for so long . crude below $100, prices at good values etc not helping the sentiment..and the biggest blower from last few weeks LEHMAN BROS finally may be going down if no suitor is there, remember this is the forth largest investor banker in the world..negating the sentiments all over the globe..most markets in Asia are closed and our indian friends generally do big moves on such days..so where we headed..4160-70 was a good support line for so long will be breached in opening as per SGX nifty . NF has strong support deeper down at the 3970-90 from where the bounce back can be expected soon. I had been asking all not to do any BOTTOM FISHING, Hope this has helped all investors and traders now can find very good value for taking trading calls afters today gap down. with todays fall the DAILY / WEEKLY CHARTS may move into oversold zone soon , so caution should be used for shorts at lower levels as a relief rally could be in store . and if a suitor is there for Lehman..today ?????????...the scene will change suddenly/dramatically.....also pls. note that the chart i posted below yesterday 4500 is the mean average of this market and somhow its spending a lot of time in this zone..trade well ..cheers.

SPEED LINES - MONTHLY CHART MAY2003-TILL DATE

MAY 2003 TILL DATE , CONNECTED 920 TO 6357.. see the 3 support speed lines the chart has generated. they are 5800-4500-3200 app. this is the zone the markets will trade in the coming times...take ur call as per your risk appetite and trade accordingly...always remember we are in the bear market and they remain there for long time and you can not wish them away easily and they keep attacking all weaknesses till all excesses are not removed of the bull run.. cheers..

NIFTY FUTURES WEEKLY 15TH SEPTEMBER.

HIGH/LOW : 4564-4216

CLOSE: 4245

STOP/REVERSE : 4341

RESISTANCE : R1 -4467-R2- 4690

SUPPORT : S1- 4119 - S2- 3993

Markets are close to their 1st monthly supports around 4160-70 zone..Intra day charts too are oversold . Any further weakness from fridays close should be used to close shorts and savvy traders can go long for quick profits. markets can retrace upto 4304-28 -68 and then to 4400 levels , where fresh supply can come again from trapped bulls. Markets world over are seeking some clues for any Bullish upmove , but on the contrary, the Bears are getting stronger with more and more weak financials emerging daily. Bulls could not protect their 4368 levels and gave way quite easily by stepping aside.Watch technicals next week carefully as this hold the key for the next few weeks..enjoy the weekend..cheers

WEAKNESS GALORE

Markets opened weak, recovered and then gave up all gains to hit lows at 4200. Asia/Europe was trading positive..we are at critical support at 4200 break of which can take it straight to 4160 & 4110. Todays main culprits if any are RIL & INFY(vertically down and then a general sell out as traders pressed the SHORT buttonsin late trade. Those who held back their purchases or did not do bottom fishing may find good value next week as markets despite dip is really oversold and can give a good bounce back too. be careful of shorts specially if we open DOWN..wait for a corrective rise before planning any further shorts ..Seems financial problems world over are still raising their ugly heads and institutional buyers are unloading their profitable positions all over, equity or commodityor anything , to take care of pressing needs or preparing for future skeletons which still are in the closet..enjoy your weekend..cheers

MARKETS STILL RANGE BOUND

Markets seem still to be range bound despite the crude /commodities being so soft and hitting lows in months , the range being 4250-4550..a significant break is reqd. at this range to signify the direction. This in fact is becoming a trading market , buy low/sell high .as intraday indicators went oversold again , a bounce is expected today, ( sgx nifty already up) till 4328-4368-4398 levels. support depper is in range of 4201-4220. As this is last trading day of the week not much activity is expected today..keep trading and be light footed..you will get days when you will get good prices for your favorite stocks, buy & hold , but always keep something stored away for that sudden deep fall which gives mouthwatering prices for long term investments..happy trading..cheers.

BLOOD BATH

Nifty slipped below all its support lines today..what i had been advocating from the last few days of slippage in sight after the DOUBLE TOP & LOWER TOP DAY , and went down to test 4270-82 area thereby giving up all the gains of this rally. it broke the shoulder support of 4364-68 & is getting ready to test the head area of 4201-4220, breach of which spells doom temporarily for bulls. As things look pretty oversold in very short term a rally can be expected till 4368-4398-4420 zones..the erstwhile support areas. Despite the crude/gold slipping , the financials of the markets world wide are still not good and institutions seems to be lightnening their portfolio holdings on every rise. i hope no bottom fishing advise in the last few days given by me , would have helped all visting this site as prices really tumbled. Building Portfolios should be avoided for more time and for deeper corrections in future, one should be a pure trader in this market to buy & sell at bottoms/tops..cheers..

TESTING SUPPORTS & GIVING UP

Markets world over are soft & correcting despite crude /gold drop..seems to be waiting for a cue as Bulls look like being on the side line..will they hold 4368-4328 zone or go to retest 4201 low..next few days will tell. market is moving surely now in zone of 4300-4500 waiting for a decider to finalise the direction of its move.avoid bottom fishing as no clue is available. the speed line chart posted before still remains valid . trade acoordingly cheers.

SLIPPING AGAIN.

Market slipped again today and moved towards 4398-4400 support zones..metals gave way in a big way , so did index stalwarts, thereby giving the impression of weakness and no conviction of moving up..intra day charts are indicating further weakness ahead & we will have to wait a few days maybe for confirmation by closely watching the 4364-68 zone & lower at 4328 , if it breaks this levels and closes below this , this could be a confirmation a deeper malice than is visible today...Global clues are required to trigger any upmove & Bulls have to defend this area strongly to resume their upward journey towards 4650 & above.. be careful of bottom fishing..cheers.

DEMONS RISE AGAIN

Despite of crude in range of $103 , US markets slipped hard and lost all gains displaying fears of further financial crisis namely Lehman bros etc. Asia and our markets too had displayed weakness and still continue to not show any conviction of upward moves. support still is in range of 4400 and deeper down at 4368-4320-4304... resistance at 4497-4522..trade carefully as markets losing timewise possibility of closing over the previous high. .. Are the markets making up their minds for a big move..time will tell..cheers

LOWER TOP TODAY

Market stopped SPOT ON at the speed line support of 4420 and slowly clawed its way up from there to make a top of 4497 and slipped again to close DAY near SUPPORT OF 4460,, marking a lower top after double top of 4525 zone in last few days.. all intraday indicators are giving negative divergence..Whats in it for us..?????CAUTION as we can slip suddenly if we do not cross 4525 zone soon..
Over 4420, Bulls still have a chance, Below this story starts getting tricky ...trade cautiously for the next few days so as to not get caught in any sudden wrong move..cheers.

GIVING UP GAINS

Markets gave up some gains yesterday despite the gap up opening. the speed lines above in intraday charts is showing lack of buying interest at tops and markets can seek support at 4460-4420 & deeper down at 4368 around. above 4500 only, it can resume the journey up to 4558 & above. I have added another indicator called TSI ( true strengh of index), a powerful tool for position trading..in the chart above you can see that despite the gap up and higher high of 4558 the TSI has much lower strenght than when we did 4522 few days back, indicating negative divergence in strenght. Above 4400 we are still in bull territory..take your call accordingly..cheers.

WHAT NEXT ?????

Market in India too cheered the Freedie/Fannie development & also the nuclear waiver got the thumbs up..by gapping up by app. 200points ( shorts , put buyers/ call writers got chopped enmass)the companies I mentioned below to gain did make smart moves during the day..As was expected and had written that after the gap up on opening will wait and watch how markets behave ( nifty did not cross the opening 4558), markets just kept slipping everytime they went high..looked like confidence to carry forward the longs or further buying conviction was lacking and that resulted in profit taking..will we correct more & give up all gains or rise up to retest the top of 4650..& move higher, lets look look later in the charts. for this ...cheers.

MARKETS CHEER FREDDIE-FANNIE

Markets in Asia cheered the news of Federal take over of Freddie/Fannie soon and gapped up, Nuclear waiver for india will be additional booster for India & SGX nifty at 4575 is reflecting the opening..DOW future is also way up..NF will cross our weekly 1sttarget of 4515 and head towards 2nd target in the next few days of 4664..(SHORTS ..GOD HELP THEM) wait for the markets to cool off a bit to see where it is headed but keep booking profits in your profitable positions as we trade up..cheers

NUCLEAR WAIVER..GREAT ELATION & PRIDE.

Indians all over are rejoicing that finally the Nuclear Isolation is over and in case india wants to be called a developed nation by 2020 , the most important thing 24 HRS ELECTRICITY to all which is a dream today should come true..Despite all protests /objections, our PMs team cleared all hurdles one by one in a very steadfast way..Will Congress/UPA benefit from this deal... well time will tell , but Mr Manmohan Singh has proved that a simple ,softspoken ,intellectual man can TRAVEL THE LAST MILE stronger & equal to any politician India has ever produced..My salute Sir,....Will the markets give a thumbs up..definitely yes it should as this is no mean achievement , and many companies namely NTPC,L & T, ABB, SIEMENS , HCC etc will get the opening cheer tomorrow morning..can this turn into a runaway rally, i will cautiously wait and watch.. charts & FII selling on friday suggest otherwise..as i mentioned below .. No shorts above 4400.. JAI HIND.

NIFTY FUTURE - NEXT WEEKS PATH

WEEKLY CLOSE 4366

S / R 4395

R1 4515 R2 4664

S1 4246 s2 4126

As weekly pivot is higher than the close..possibility of markets dipping further on rise is still there..as weekly, monthly future s/r are very near, 4395-4410.. dont be short over these levels..buying in dips at supports can be done ..trade accordingly.. cheers.

RETREATING BULLS

Markets gapped down and the bears just butchered the bulls who thought yesterday that we are consolidating or plain buy in dips policy...(and will move up definitely today)...i feel here people should spend some time on learning technicals/ charting ,it helps.... the market immedietly hit our lower target of 4345 and INSIDE DAY gave the direction which was down..we are at the shoulder support of 4364-68, not much support came from the institutons as all rallies during the day were getting sold out like yesterday..do we break down and move towards the head at 4201 or drift lower or take support here and move up again..lets ponder on that over the weekend..anyone visiting NIFTYSPOTTER would be happy that the weekly technicals for NF were 4511-4324 ..NF moved to 4441-4544 and then back to 4441- 4326..hope people were able to trade this ..enjoy your weekend friends ...cheers

BLOODY REVERSAL AGAIN..

Markets gave a indication of what is in store , when it gapped down , made a INSIDE DAY , midcaps/small caps flew all around..and index stocks just did nothing..those NOT FOLLOWING CHARTS/FUNDAMENTALS would have taken this as consolidation/buy in dip oppurtunity and would be caught in buy positions...MARKETS will hit the support line of 4364-68 and chart its path from there..DONT BE IN A HURRY TO BUY..as despite weaker crude thereis softness all over the globe.. lets see how todays drama unfolds..pls. do remember my magic areas of 4345 & 4304 deeper down..(all those shorts who covered would be left wondering today...thats markets friends..) happy trading and cheers
WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL MY GURUS TODAY FOR THE WISDOM THEY GAVE ME..HAPPY TEACHERS DAY.

INSIDE DAY

Market did what was expected started soft and gapped down and then drifted down to take support at 4420 levels...despite it trying 2-3 times to move up , selling came back..mid /small caps were flying all around and some of them like moser/hcc/mll/boi etc gave good returns..the market today made a INSIDE DAY, meaning it never crossed the high / low of yesterday..what does this mean...when ever the market will cross either high/low that MOVE can be big in the breakout direction, which should be followed by traders....so watch out for the break out friends...INDEX shares did nothing..is it DISTRIBUTION/CONSOLIDATION , time will tell..cheers

SOFT CLUES WORLDWIDE

The markets rallied smartly on tuesday but the world indexes did nothing much but showed reversals, great softness ,despite crude really cooling off..markets by and large are moving up on lower volumes..some profit taking can be expected as even SGX nifty is trading down..& all intra day indicators have gone into overbought territory due to the huge single day rally..see where the markets open down, where they consolidate and before taking your trading call..BUY IN DIPS AFTER CONSOLIDATION could be a policy ..supports are at 4450- 4410 or deeper at 4368 and resistance at 4572-86..& further ahead is 4628-4650..stop loss for longs should now be in range of 4368.
cheers & happy trading

UNMATCHED RALLY TODAY..

markets were gearing up for such a sudden move from the last few days( very quick recoveries on falls was a silent signal)..& BULLS SHOWED THEIR MIGHT , remember had said support at 4335-4304 & ABOVE 4400 BULLS TERRITORY..markets ran with crude fall in mid day..short calls from the last few days completely got squeezed out , seeing the premium and the way nifty future ran..finally moving into overbought territory intraday and as we moved up fast, caution is required also as we can dip hard too with bears always waiting for the opportunity to attack....global reactions /clues will give clearer direction on thursday to us after the holiday.. crude too is recovering and can get back to respectable levels again promting the euphoria to subside suddenly..we may hit resistance in the next resistance levels of 4572-86..NS ,in case we move up from here..NF managed to cross its weekly target of 4511 easily in 2 days..enjoy the break..cheers

CRUDE MELT DOWN...

Crude after making some noise till $ 120..is hovering in the region of $111-112 , with hurricane GUSTAV losing momemtum ,any break here can take it further down,which is a good news for all the markets specially asia..markets made smart recovery yesterday..closely watch 4364-4390-4398 range for resistance & 4335-4304 for supports,,only a few closes above 4400 can take us towards recent highs..being a truncated week with a holiday tomorrow , there may be cautious low key moves today..trade accordingly..cheers

MARKET REFLECTIONS

Markets opened much lower ,stopped app. at 50% of the rise of friday, took support , consolidated at our level of around 4304 and finally gave a smart swift recovery to close with a notional loss . DTI is still negative and is hovering around the zero line..lets look at some other indicators also in the coming days for the sense of direction..cheers.

DAILY TECHNICALS

US & ASIA markets are weak, markets will open down and maybe remain weak thru out the day..despite the markets going up on friday with a good rally, the DTI was pointing down in daily charts that whole day (refer chart of monthly techs.posted last night)and is about to cross zero line, thereby indicating further weakness..4304 around should give support ..trade accordingly..cheers..