There has been lots of friends mailing me or asking my views on what i think is the path ahead, as many appreciate the 6th march posting i gave for buying into the fall for good gains..
Lets look into whats in store for us and what has happened in the last few weeks. Technically we made a low SEVEN WEEKS back at 2539, on 6th march '09. This rally is 7 weeks old from there. 8th week and around can be a turning point. Now what have we been doing..?????? We travelled from a low of 2252 to 3247..in october to early November.. From then on every rise has been sold into , leading to a final frenzy towards the 1st week of March. I had mentioned also that its very important that if the 27th oct low days close WHICH WAS 2528 is not breached , we can head up, and had also written that despite still being around 2550-2600 levels the prices of many many stocks are below oct . lows and requested all to start buying.
Lets move a little backwards.. This fall to 2252 started from a high of 3648 on 14/10/08, so if we look at the swings of NOV '08 and top of OCT.' 08, the only swing we have is 3247 then 3648......and we made in this run 3511..So as we never broke the oct low , will we break the oct top...Maybe not in this rally....This rally may either end below 3511, or go towards 3648 or make a lower anywhere in between 3511-3648...
The swing below levels are LEVEL OF 3300 ZONE now , break of which can take us all the way to 3150-2950 zone..
So the risk reward now is not in favour of holding longs overnight, play the momentum and savvy traders can look for shorting opportunities in the next week or so when or if profit taking sets in..Small investors /traders should wait for a good dip to get into this rally again, which may move up till beyond middle of this year after a good dip..
I hope this sheds some light for all those friends thinking ,waiting to see where we head..enjoy the weekend..cheers.
PS : You can always join our service for nifty future /options/select stocks trading in case you seek professional/technical help.
