SHORT COVERING

Starting this SAMVAT , the positive trend is continuing and shorts are getting squeezed this time. Markets were mixed in Asia and despite profit taking, at 2780 -2800 zone short covering came in this area after the markets failed to drop any further and a very quick ride up in last 1/2 hr trade took us again around the top of the day..After a long time one can say, relax and enjoy the weekend...cheers.

PS: history will remember october '08 for times to come and lots of fundamental/technical papers will be written about it in years to come..

PATH AHEAD- resistance clusters

The 3 major downwards moves came from 4649-4303-3649, i have taken the retracement from 2252 for all these 3 levels..The upmove resisitance comes in the shape of clusters here for the move up, CLUSTERS are at app. 2800-3050-3200. October is coming to an end and i dont think we will make any more new lows this month. Bulls have to forget the brutal hammering they got at the hands of the bears last month and keep taking the market slowly away from 2252 to make a semblence of sanity for times ahead. Around 2524 ( monday close ) levels will hold a key area of supports for times to come . Let us see how the footprints are made in the next week or so, to see the trade ahead for the next 2-3 months..Markets i feel will be traders paradise for some time to come..People who had bought the panic dips of friday and monday should book profit and buy again in dips . Trade accordingly , cheers.

V ANAND - INDIAS PRIDE

Standing Ovation and Salute to one Indian who has made us all proud again and again, Viswanathan Anand. You have no parallels . Keep the Indian flag flying high ...Thank you...cheers.

YO YO DAY WITH POSITIVE BIAS

Markets reacted to good positive moves in the US and continued yesterdays positive cues ,but kept getting knocked again and again to profit taking..The YO YO was due to settlement day and GOVT announcements coming tonite..Thank god this series will come to a end , also this BLACK OCTOBER '08. Will be remembered for a long time to come by all participants of the stock markets . Resistance is around 2780-2800 area and support at around 2670 ..break of which will give a quick 150 points move either way..Take care ..cheers..

POSITIVE SAMVAT

Markets world over it seems celebrated the the festival of lights DEEPAVALI, by giving a thumping single day gains.The script got written on friday when our markets trashed and then recovered after faltering once or twice..Nifty moved back from the extension area in the chart i had posted and all the buys of the last two days if visitors to this blog had done are in very good profits including FNO.As we may gap up again today ,resistance may come at 2800 area around..majority profits should be taken off the table for once and the rest traded with strict trailing stoploss. The range to watch is app. 2750-2914-3050 area for this week. Remember had written for weekly range that markets strong over 2800 and will take support around 2350 area. trade well and best wishes for the new SAMVAT..cheers.
PS. A interesting blog you can visit for nifty range is http://www.niftytopsnbottoms.blogspot.com/

HAPPY DIWALI

I would like to wish all friends a very HAPPY DIWALI AND PROSPEROUS SAMVAT2065.
We hope to look forward to better times in the coming months and year.May goddess LAXMI give her blessings to all of us ( sincerely needed by us this time).

ARTICLE IN INVESTTIME OCTOBER ISSUE.

link below for my article in the Birlasunlifes Inhouse magazine INVESTTIMES. (page39)
http://www.birlasunlife.com/distributiontsetIMS/new/Investime_Oct_08.pdf

HELL & BACK

What a day, no one knows now what is happening and why it is happening..only saving grace is that we recovered for the day and did not close again at absymally low levels..This surely will be the blackest diwali in history of indian stock markets as no one remembers anything worser happening level wise/price wise..Lets hope the last samvat ends today and the new samvat brings about some cheer..lets forget markets for somtime and enjoy the festival of lights...wishing all friends a very HAPPY DIWALI..cheers..
PS: WE HAVE COMPLETED 51 DAYS OF FALL TODAY, from 4649.

TRADING TODAY

Markets in Asia are still weak today morning, the pressure is huge and buyers may still be holding back the BUY CALL as to get more juice from these weak markets..do look at the charts posted yesterday and trade accordingly..CHEERS

NIFTY CHARTS- ROAD AHEAD.

The charts above are self explanatory, however CHART1 is the extension/progression chart from 5298-3750-4649 giving the targets till date.. .. The CHART 2 shows that speed lines connection 5298 to 3790 which is showing support around 2450 area , In hindsight it looks as if that When markets could not hold above 3250 and then failed repeatedly to cross 3300, it was as if waiting to test this SPEED LINE AREA..Also please note that the fall from 5298-3790 took 52 days(red line/days) & the fall this time from 4649 to 2525 is already 49 days old..(blue line days), so looking at the markets from any angle in the above two charts gives me a understanding that despite that fact that we are at all time lows.... the supportlines/time cycle/support areas ..& we could be near a end..Do study the charts , make your own anlysis, and take your call..This carnage too will end abruptly as the euphoria ended rudely in january..cheers..

PS. will welcome comments on the charts and analysis i post..

TRUNCATED WEEK AHEAD

Nothing much from the trade from US markets except that it was very volatile and it was not a washout as was in Asia , specially here in India. This OCTOBER MONTH will go down in history as the mother of CAPITULATION, for world financial markets and a huge watershed which decades ahead will be discussed by TAs, for clues and Analysis.
So whats in store next week, most people are seeking views and help of experts as to how to proceed...equity/commodities etc all giving no safe heaven????The fact is no one knows, but someone is buying..People looking ahead and with cash have bought in the last few days,including my wife, and will buy scrips if they dip more for trade and hold....People with Resource capacity & risk appetite only should buy here , otherwise just trade the trends with options ,NF, or one can do daytrades..The fact sadly is that most traders/investors world over play on the long side only as they do stocks ..and are not savvy in futures/options..thus their pain is more high as they dont play the short side of the market.
Coming back home S/R in NIFTY next week will be around 2800, with support at around 2350 & resistance around 3050.It being a Diwali week and also truncated , volumes maybe less..Take your call, will look at some charts tomorrow and try to make some sense out of them for future..cheers..

BLACK FRIDAY

Not much to say except total abject, surrender & capituation..heading towards a frenzied end.. No one thought we will come this far so fast..Support after support went crashing down..As there are only seller and no buyers , something dramatic will have to be done by GOVERMENTS to stem this rot. we are below the june'06, levels today , Prices at much more lower than at those levels ..Bad end to this SAMVAT..This is despodency at its peak..Take care ..cheers

BOTTOMING OUT

Markets will be bottoming out soon as this looks to be the last stages where everyone has just given up on the markets and despodency set in now with absymally low levels are being proposed..The Andrewspitchfork above is showing a tentative target, and this is matches & will join with a very strong multi year support line (2750 ) around which the markets can take support and give the much needed relief rally..Samvat trading is on tuesday and a turn of sentiments may be in offing soon. look at the support lines provided in the chart to plan your moves and calls..take care cheers...

ARM TWISTING DAY

Panic fall, Panic top and then back to the trend ie downwards was the order of the day..A traders paradise today , markets gave returns to both the bulls/bears though the day in the end again goes to bears..lets see how things pan out in the next few days till settlement..my advise to smaller traders is stay away till diwali ..enjoy the festival with family & friends and keep away..let the market settle down and then take your call, the supports given in the morning remain there till they are breached....cheers..

DOWN & OUT

Markets all over are bleeding including all commodities(GOLD GONE) today morning. So we will break the range at 3050 for the lower side with at least a target of 2850 as i had been mentioning last few days... A very strong support line now exists at app. 2750 levels(I never believed we will reach this level so fast), and if market takes support there, which i feel it should , we will retrace back to 3250 zone and any rally above this will take us to 3900 and above zone. Talking about higher levels today sounds nutty, but so was talking of 3600 & below at 6357..Take your call as per your holding capacity.. cheers

SOUTHWARDS AGAIN

Yesterday was move northwards, today southwards..the range 3050-3250 kissed both ways...Comeon guys .. whatsup??????? ...lets move on..next few days will be very crucial..if we break the lows , panic bottoms can be made as settlement approches..remember we are slipping from 1st day of this series ..trade carefully and with strict stoplosses as you can get whacked both ways in this madness...cheers

RANGE TRADING

When ever the end of a trend is coming , markets go in a range which slowly compresses till it breaks out on the reverse side...Is our markets behaving like that..as of today the range set is 3250-3050, yesterday we touched the top, we may go down and see where the supports are..there or above or below...next week or so will be defining moment , as next week settlement will clear many many positions and November series can start with its own direction & steam..The chart above is a daily chart and the speed line range is available for all to see..this should be a tentetive range of support / resistances for the time being..i have taken the complete fall from 4649 to 3046..one can buy dips from here on whenever one see lows holding..Take ur call...cheers

BULLS DAY

Markets moved spot on and stopped again around 3250 zone..break of which can take us over 3400. The footprint till now is higher highs/lows..lets see how the Europe/US markets fare..As Markets made higher lows , buy on dip worked well..savvy traders are getting trades both ways..not much movement in mid/small caps ...mainly action in index shares..hope people who had dipped in the shares 2 days back are in profits..will try to post some chart for levels tomorrow..do keep booking profits..take care cheers

RANGE SET

Markets world over are setting their own agendas /paths, ours for the time being is set in the range of 3050-3250 with a move of app. 200 points in case of break on anyside..the move of 100 points in nifty from the low in the late trade was heartening and what unfolds will have to be seen..Markets worldwise are in positive , so should we be today..watch the levels , trade cautiously..cheers

WHAT A DAY

WOW, is the word, roller coaster ride up/down the whole day , with the day going in favour of bulls in the end.. wait & watch for another day or so for any confirmation that this will be held..Looks like still every rise the funds are selling.... as at top of the day today even the selling was hard and severe..though halted at the low of yesterday..lets look at technicals in a day or so and trade with the trend for the next day or so ..right now the range is 3050-3250..any break either way should be at least 200 points..take care ..cheers..

SAMVAT TRADING

Last Diwali on Samvat trading the markets closed lower, nifty app.100 if i remember..this happened after many years & Many stalwarts wrote that this is not a good sign and the year ahead is going to be very tough. How right were they .... We are reaching another Samvat trading in a weeks time.. ..Is it time to look ahead, i think it is time now for people sitting on cash, to start picking up quality stocks which have weathered this huge deluge of selling well as they will be the ones who will bounce the hardest..Despite huge bearish outlook i feel the time is ripe for at least 50% investment ( this money may be locked for 6-12 months ).Take ur call, if Warren Buffet feels investors should come back, who are we to question that..Asia meanwhile is trading mix..Cheers..

MONTHLY CHARTS FOR GOLD

This is the Monthly gold chart which a friend of mine RAMA from chennai had been asking for..Hope my advise of no buy in gold helped..It corrected over $150. Right now its at 1st support and trending down..the chart is clear in the support/extensions targets, i feel with financial crunch all around, better to wait for some time for stabality to return to world financial markets to plan investment in gold..Hope this helps all friends visiting the blog..cheers

WILL THIS STOP

Volatality has assumed huge dimensions..Cboe Vix over 70 literally( unseen levels by many), the whole world financial order is disarry, best not to discuss any levels..Huge blood on the street, mouthwatering levels of stocks( yet only sellers )total capitulation, huge fear/abject surrender is the hallmark of last few weeks... R we reaching a end..LOOKS LIKE , for the time being..This is what Smart money/Angel investors look for and get in for the long haul again..Watch LEVELS around-- 3280 ---next week.. ..Above that sanity can return..3143 was the STRONG MONTHLY SUPPORT for so long , hope we close over that this month..3050-2995-2950 are good supports..HOPING FOR SANITY TO RETURN SOON,,,,,,,..Trade cautiously..cheers..

BLACK FRIDAY

It looks as if the stock markets performance script is well written for everyweekend , that there will be a good fall on friday so that any and everyone will spend the weekend in misery to find an ans. for this mad mayhem. This is a true picture of the Real bear market which has finally unfurled from 24th september..So today we finally wiped out all recovery again of yesterday and fell to lower depths.. this is whats been happening from the last few days/ weeks..All around all gains of the day were lost in the indexes world over.lets see over the weekend as to what to do now..think best is to not think about the markets and just chill...cheers..

WHAT NEXT

I had written a few days back that we have a target of 3140-50 or lower at 3100, where we may tend to take support, we met that target yesterday and bounced back smartly from there.. Severe capitulation has taken place in small/mid cap shares and many index stalwarts have also not been spared.If this low holds the correction which started from 4649 should come to a end. The next few days will tell, as any upmove does not survive more than 2-3 days. US markets last night gave a BULLISH reversal pattern( recovered all losses and closed in huge positive). Nearer home support of 3240-3225 should hold failing which we may retest the lows..Resistance to the upmove will be 3350-3500 for the time being..Our markets may trade flat to positive before it charts its course.Trade carefully ..cheers

ROLLER COASTER.

Huge global weakness crashed our markets too despite of huge sops from RBI yesterday evening..and then when all looked lost came the great bullish reversal..and what a rally..it was threatening to break 10k sensex ,,,and we travelled back to 3329.....from 3099....3097 is a strong support for this market below which 2995 is what the target could be.Markets have been recovering to deceive again and again with every new bottom, so will have to cross fingers to see how the trade pans out in the next week or so ..3240 is a crucial support level below which 3200 is there, as global cues are guiding us , lets see how Europe/US pans out tonite....take care cheers.

RAMPAGING BEARS AGAIN

The speed lines are quite clear..I connected 4000 - 3198 and see the result, we were to be out of woods over 3648 , alas the bears out again and the bulls just running off.. support was around 3280 level and deeper down at 3050-3000. Is it testing the lows again , or real fears of recession/poor earnings/redemption pressures which is leading to sell offs on a daily basis...I feel in bear markets when nothing helps and there is desperation/despair...we may be near the bottoms..keep cheery picking partially some stocks which you would like to have and carry for 1-2 years..Do keep in mind the rallies in bear markets are fast furious and dont get trapped into buying the highs..trade carefully..cheers..

DOWN & OUT

The 2 days gains just tripped out in a slow grind down in the last 2 days...very typical of bear markets where markets RISE FEROCIOUSLY, and fall VERY SLOWLY.. We are near supports now and if global cues are flat to slight negative , we may expect a recovery here too in a day or so. Lets look into some technicals tonite and will post them tomorrow morning..Hope all who took profits home would be ready to plow their capital again in the market..cheers..

SOFT AGAIN

Profit taking took place yesterday and may continue today too as Asia /US is slightly negative ..best is to wait and watch for a day or so & see what technicals unfold to take a call..trade carefully..cheers.

ARTICLES FOR INVESTTIME

Dear friends, BIRLA SUNLIFE ( wealth managers) Reserch team has asked me to start a series of articles for their inhouse magazine, INVESTTIME on market technicals /indicators/chartpatterns etc etc , for the COMING months... The first in the series is published and available . Do go through the link given below
http://www.birlasunlife.com/distributiontsetIMS/new/Investime_Sept_08.pdf
PAGE 10.
Markets did gap up , gave good profits and the call for booking profits and taking them home must have helped....do remember last weeks mauling by bears was huge and wounds will take some time to heal..lets see how things unfold in the next day or so and where we take support..cheers

AMA/CHANDE VIDYA LINES

the line in green red is AMA/and the line in pink white is chande vidya..see the RSI has a long way to go up to overbought territory right now..notice when they falttened .the prices rallied towards it yesterday...so whe nit will slip price will travel to it..on the rt side is the ama/cv values.. also if u will look a few days back from where the selling is coming when they both turned down...cheers

BULLS BACK

HELLO BULLS, looks like some survived.the severe bear maulings.Weekend gloom doom vanishes with todays opening, most of the fall of last week will be reversed in 2 days..Had written that all this selling is overdone and the bulls will uncoil..as indicators are abt. to turn. Hope the speedlines/retracements levels helped..People who bought stocks last week or went long in FNO should post profits today..enjoy the ride..cheers.

OVERDONE OVERTURNED A BIT

Wow ......relief rally came despite huge glomminess thru the weekend..All and everyone were jumping over one another to give newer lower targets for this monday..well markets are markets, the footprint of the friday trade of higher lows..3198-3209-3258, held as I had written & also the uncoiling of the oversold positions was to take place , we rallied up doing higher highs throughout the day....Good thing is there was no huge selling in the last hour of trade. Technicals do help and its proved again today, only interpretation of signals is required..Hope people have benefitted from the technicals posted here.. So where to from here ..the speed lines will still remain valid..lets see how the drama unfolds in US markets today. Enjoy the good day today...cheers.

CONSOLIDATION WEEK

The speedlines/retracement levels are self explanatory, the damage is very severe and will take its own time to recover. Keep a check on higher lows/highs for direction of the market..All indicators are oversold and can turn anytime, specially this time the faster indicators in daily/weekly/monthly may turn up together which can give a good relief rally, which if held can become a bigger rally..one can pick shares of significance for quick profits in such rally..with sincere wishes for a nice weekly close this week.. ...cheers..

WHATS UP FOR NEXT WEEK

SECULAR damage took place all over the world in stock markets and the financial world. Huge wealth destruction took place in all asset classes except gold. Volatile trading in the US markets and final closing at marginally lower( THANK HEAVENS) eased the fears a bit.Every one is talking abt. decesions to be taken in G7 summit for sanity to return to world financial order.
Back home we did make higher lows but did not make higher highs..we managed to stop at crucial levels on friday..there will be strenght only above the level of 3400 , supports/ resistance at app 3100-3600.. Selling looks very overdone and all indicators can turn anytime..some good stocks which are available today at bargain prices due to capitulation can surely be added for your portfolio for small-midterm ,or a trading bounce in a relief rally. Watch the opening of Asia on monday, I feel next week trading again will be quite volatile till sanity returns..trade with care ..cheers..

CHOPPY TRADE

The markets were flying all around the whole day after the huge gap down and near circuit levels in the morning and despite all help from the government , it kept slipping again and again ..the bottom as of today is 3198-3209-3258 at day end..and we made lower tops at 3396-3364..Europe /US futures is in deep red..Depressing day for all and i think hands off would have helped today to gauge and see how markets are behaving..lets see how next week unfolds..till then rekax and dont think of the markets this weekend..good sign i noticed was that many stocks started moving up after the carnage and are up 20-25% from their bottoms..cheers..

HOW TO TRADE

Markets have to make higher lows /highs before some semblence comes..if 3199 the todays base is breached , then we wait for another low or market should make higher low (3239 it is that right now)before we can even think of this carnage taking some breath.. todays high of 3396 will have to be crossed too.( basically a few higher lows/highs will be a clue for stopping of this carnage).so look at this range intra day for your cues , its already been a very chppy market..
take care.

INSANE SELLING

Global markets are plunging and there is no respite , all and any supports just plunging , I had posted charts yesterday for supports resistances.Best stratergy is to stay away as every new day comes with worser news.Semblence has to come and it cannot carry on like this.HUGE wealths have been wiped out in the last few days and will take time to recover this, only if this madness stops first ....Take care ...cheers.

PS. Take a break.

MONTHLY SUPPORTS RESISTANCES.

The Monthly Nifty Charts show the downward sloping channel..the touch down was app.3290-3300 , markets moved fast furiuos yesterday towards it , but stopped short at 3329.45..,turned and covered ground fast despite continuos selling & kept recovering till the close.The speed lines show the 3rd final supports around 3100 area..(i have 3140-3150 as a value of nifty for final support )below which could be a free fall..last we tested this support line was MAY'04...If this bottom holds , we can expect a bounce to 4100 area as per speed lines and any turn of trend can take us to top of the channel which today is .. 4300 area ..

The Monthly Stochastics & RSI are fast nearing the oversold territory( from January'08 tops) but still pointing downwards due to relentless selling of last 1 week. As and when they turn , the market can look upwards..for a while , will the relief rally come , surely why not as everything is grossly overdone..MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN..??????The best thing we can do here is start to look for signs like, higher bottoms /higher tops...& see that the bottoms made are not breached .Do keep in mind that the last one weeks fall put in a huge STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO ALL STOCK/FINANCIAL MARKETS OF THE WORLD. And recovery will be a bit slow and over time..Hope this helps all friends visiting here.. cheers..

PS: Monthly charts are used for finding future footprints from the past for longterm.

HAPPY DUSSEHRA DAY

I would like to wish all friends visiting my blog on this auspicious day, with a sincere hope that the coming days /weeks brings a end to this senseless selling/carnage and world financial order stabalises too. I would like to thank all the visitors to the blog , specially the people who have been sending me mails/yahoo msgs , for their encouragement and kind words. Since I started this blog, I have been trying to build this place as a learning site for newbies and oldbies for technicals , using my knowledge and expertise of reading and interpreting charts.Please appreciate that my complete time is paid by my clients & my expertise / trading skills is primarily for them so technicals is what you get here , will try to do more for intraday also if time permits..I feel it is better for people to learn technicals themselves and trade according to their risk appetite..not long back a group of people got together to learn technicals from me..almost all take their own calls except one or two who still chase experts all the time ..and wait for calls..WHAT A WASTE..do keep sending me ur suggestions for what more in techs . can be done.& .Enjoy the day...cheers.

DOWN BUT NOT OUT TODAY

Horrendous start to the day..gap down and falling all supports broke..finally reached a support where buying emerged & what a run , despite repeated selling again & again the markets kept trying to recover losses..ending in a HAMMER CANDLE IN DAILY CHARTS.( long tail at bottom, shorts covered)...hope my call before the 11.30 am close helped and all those friends who visited the blog could buy calls and stocks....lets breathe a bit easiar with todays closing and reflect over the holiday as to what next..as the sunoutage days has really drained every bit of energy from all.. relax & enjoy the festivities my friends..cheers...

COMPLETE BREAK DOWN

Markets just melted away..the carnage continues..best is to sit back and let it unfold its frenzy. we are near supports so shorts can be covered and wait for longs to be initiated..some out of money calls say 3900-4000 type can be initiated later today ,stocks are at good valuations and some long positions can be initiated here for short to mid term for the pull backs (use own funds only which you can hold)....keep away from futures etc...cheers..

CARNAGE AGAIN

No respite for the global markets..Watch the ANDREWS PITCHFORK/SPEED LINES INTRA CHART i had posted before for supports.. today also is the last day of truncated sunoutage trading..this whole period has been real bad ,a specially the last few days...Evaluations are coming to attractive levels , this trend has to snap/stop , SMART MONEY waiting for long should be ready to jump in anytime , maybe waiting for cues /dollops from the goverments all over the world. Wait for stablity to come for taking any calls.Tomorrow being a holiday keep light trades or just stay away..cheers.

ps. will try to post after 11.30 am with some chart for todays trade..

VOLATILITY GALORE

The day will be written as a huge volatile day where both bulls/bears struggled for supremacy..indexes & prices were dancing thru out the day..every rise was sold into,and prices capitulated like nothing before..in the last trading secession,finally the markets starting absorbing the feeds and moving up. though the markets closed much higher , however the adjustments brought it down in closing ..... seems the bears may have withdrawn temporarily,after booking their huge profits..The trading footprint is in the charts that i posted mid day, hope it had helped....trade accordingly..cheers.

MIDDAY POSTING

The two intraday charts above of speed line/pitchfork till 11.30 am.. they are from the start of this downwave ie 4304..& are self explanatory..we are at supports here..if these do not hold then the next supports are deeper down..take ur trading calls as per ur risk appetite..cheers.

CAPITULATION

Looks like monday was a day of capitulation fever which moved from Asia to Europe and then final frenzy in US. Good news is that a sharp bounce occured by end of trade there in US...The Asian markets are a bit stable today and with our GOVT. also announcing some sops last evening , we too hope to stabalise. The chart posted last evening should be used for reference for trading levels in the next few days. Remember everything overdone comes to a end. Keep your trades very light as we have a holiday on thursday for Dussehra and the truncated trading ends on 8thoct.3800-4000 area will be a area to watch and break again below 3600 can take us to 3500. take care..cheers.

BLOOD BATH AGAIN

Blood bath again today, every market in the world capitulised on financial fears..where is the base..we should be touching base at least for the time being some where around these levels in zone of 3650-3600-3550-3500..( have posted charts also for this few days back)many scrips are available at mouth watering prices and people in cash would have definitely bought for a trading bounce.. Some world order will be surely there and the retracements also will be fast & furious as is typical of the Bear markets. The above chart shows the channel we are following , support at app.3550 and the resistance on reversal at 3800-4050. Hope this helps..( do not sell off in panic)Trade accordingly...cheers

SUPPORT AROUND 3650

Nifty moved from 920, may 03 to 6357, jan'08..50 % retracement is 3644 area..markets came and stopped here..Despite holding out 3774 for 3 months , this level finally held. today was a capitulation day when specially the index shares tumbled and margin calls also played out. Hold on to your guns ..dont panic..and sell your stocks..stay in the sideslines..A bounce will come..these are great price levels and brave hearts can do some blue chip share picking..cheers.

WEAKNESS GALORE

Asia is soft after the US melt down, financial problems galore and it seems more agony in store. Only above 3774 will there be some semblence.Market will be weak below 3730. The first 1st hr of trade and closing will be important . The Andrew Pitchfork tells all for this range of of the nifty, as the sentiment is bad, best stratergy for a day or two will be to stay out and let market decide . Marekts will be oversoold with todays opening but can remain oversold to for more time so..WAIT FOR DUST TO SETTLE. ..cheers.

MACD DIVERGENCES & COMPRESSIONS

The chart 1 is a daily chart and looking at the MACD , one can see that during the falls in january the MACD went to -220 NS @ 4448 , in july -204 NS at 3790, and now at -114 NS at app.3800 level . The MACD is improving gaining strenght with the passage of time despite NS going lower, that shows a POSITIVE DIVERGENCE..as of today..also pls. note that the red line in macd( above zero line) is a strong resistance point from where it keeps falling.. this is showing signs of bottoming out some time in the near future.

The chart 2 is the weekly charts which show the green line at a area which can be a tentative support in coming days if we trail downwards..its around 3600 area and is march '07 lows..(Sensex which made a low 12312 in march' 07 has already gone lower at 12153 now)Also note that this MACD also is loosing the momentun, the 2 first falls from 6357 & 5500 is strong where as now its showing compression of trend.

So can we fall more , sure we can, but will this have huge momentum, cant say as MACD is showing divergence and compression..so maybe cross your fingers we may be near to an end of this trend soon. The short/long lines as yet are pointing down and these points could be the reversal targets if & when we turn to start with..So dont be depressed with all the bad news around. MARKETS HAVE TO MAKE ITS WAVES..UP-DOWN-UP.Wait for the MACD to cross over for upwards move..then enter for a nice haul up.

MACD is a powerful tool used by many experts to see the trends as they start giving signals much in advance of the coming moves of the markets..hope this helps all...cheers..

WHATS IN STORE NEXT WEEK

US MARKETS instead of cheering the bailout package ,charted its own course last night which was down. The gloom and doom advocates were out with their knifes surprising most of the experts in WALL/MAIN STREET. Nearer home target of around 3650 or below , may finally be come true next week after ALMOST 3 MONTHS HOLDING . 3880 area will be the S/R for NF next week..with range of 3650-4100 . Its going to be a tough volatile , so trade carefully so as to not be whipsawed. Will post some charts later today for all to see and analyse.. cheers.

SLIPPING AGAIN

Markets slipped right from the word go..and went down as per our speed lines ..3900-3800..till the end when some short covering from intraday traders took it up a bit..today the index shares slipped too ..led by who but RIL..seems to be overdone..So whats in store for next week..will look into this over the weekend..The only fact is that all & sundry are getting sick in their pits now by this daily bashing which seems to be coming to a frenzy as the CBOE vix of US too is dangling at the top..many chatting or calling up just want to shut down their terminals for a few days / weeks and stay away..Hey this could be the first signs of a temp. end to this misery may be in sight soon..enjoy ur weekend..cheers.

SAFETY FIRST

Looks like the US markets dont want to take chances and are pressurising the law makers by dipping last evening , into passing the bailout package ASAP, so that Americans and the world goes about doing there business..The consenses remains that no one wants financial mayhem in this world..

Coming to our markets..the speed lines in the intraday 60 mins charts suggest a trading range for us..around 3800-3900-4050 app... the Fast DTI is reflecting the last 2 days upwards momentum but near zero cross over, which can reverse in opening only..

I would like to pointout here that one of the good tool to evaluate market /momentum/direction is MACD. Unfortunately in daily scale its still negative..long positions should be taken only when this starts displaying upwards momentum or positive divergence in DAILYCHARTS..I will post some charts for all to see and take/plan their investment/trading stratergy.... happy trading ..cheers.

NINE MONTHS GONE BY

Nine months ago we all were on top of this world, sadly, today we are in the pits with many a fortunes wiped out, many participants permanently dissipating in thin air. All efforts are being put today by Governments/authorities/funds/investors etc too , to stem this slide down , and maybe a temporary halt be in order in near future..that does not mean that the bear market has ended & a bull market is starting..Bear markets last anything from 18-34 months before resuming their onward journey up.All bear markets have very fast furious retracements , which should not be confused as bull market returns..these are trading bounces - range bound , and liquidations at top will surely take place,,before it resumes its southward journey for consolidation and spending the time to remove the excesses of the last 5 yrs bull run. So lets see how things unfold in the next few weeks , a rally sometime is due and will happens , from this level or lower, time will tell, but surely the rally will come, thats what stock markets are..
On a personal note, these last nine months have been a great learning journey as i think not only me but many people today would have never seen a bear market unfolding..most entered during the bull phase.Met & made quite a few friends all over this investing world, special mention of the forum called VFM Direct managed by a renowned Technical Analyst of india Kamlesh Langote.(link provided)...mostly simple nice people (well some ....really sad ones)..Special mention i want to do of my dear friend , KIRAN SHAH from PUNE, huge selfless contribultion he gave to all of us by digging into the INTERNET and giving us so many tools.hes our CAMARILLA MAN He shared with all of us anything he could lay his hands on and i could always get back to him for any help i needed in my reserch.Thnx kiran..Rounding off now by paying tributes to Gandhi ji, & with a strong belief of not loosing hope..JAI HIND.

BULLISH DAY

Yesterday call of bullish candle and open to close high gave us the range we looked for in the morning update..app.3850-4000 area. This is becoming a traders market where participants are not very keen as of now to carry forward and add to their longs after buying the panic bottoms..profits are being taken on a intraday or a 2-3 days positional basis...I f we take 3800 as the near term bottom , the tops are squeezing downwards from 4600 in july to about 4000 today.The trading range is getting smaller and smaller.A range ..break out/down is imminent and will be fast furious in a few days from now ....Which side ..Take a guess?????? CHEERS.

NEW BLOG

I am planning to start another blog along with nifty spotter ( caveat remains that i should have spare time from my regular work), where i plan to explain technicals/detailed analysis/give maybe directional calls/ stock pickings/intraday calls /live intraday chat invite other experts etc etc..But this site will be private & accesable through invitaion only. friends visiting here who may be interested and have some suggestions , do send me a mail .thanks in advance....THIS WILL BE A FREE SITE. cheers.

WHATS UP NOW

US markets up, bailout package voting again on wednesday..should go through, being a truncated week, positional players will lighten profit making positions whether short or long & also see from here as markets after the settlement already gave a fast furious one sided move which shook all...Goverments world over were trying to stem the rot by restricting short sellers. 3600 remains a huge dogma for many people as again and again on falls its alluding them. For todays trade 4000 to be watched and 3850 should hold in support. cheers